Party Democratic Republican
Senate Majority Probability 24% 76%
Average Outcome 48.2 51.8
Median Outcome 48 52
Most Common Outcome 48 52
Democratic 95th Percentile Outcome 52 48
Democratic 75th Percentile Outome 50 50
Repulican 75th Percentile Outcome 47 53
Republican 95th Percentile Outcome 46 54

Republicans enter election day with a 76% chance of retaking the Senate. Republicans are buoyed by the fact that most of the competitive seats are in Republican leaning states. In fact, if Republicans merely win every state that was Republican leaning in 2020 – ie, states where Biden did worse than he did nationally – Republicans would win 53 seats, holding Pennsylvania and picking up Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

Democrats are helped by the fact that Republican candidates are polling worse in many of these states than the fundamentals would suggest. Indeed, Democrats are over-performing their fundamentals in the polls by at least 3 points in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Still, it’s unclear whether this is due to poor candidate quality among Republicans or bad polling at the state level. As a result, my model takes a 50/50 average of the polling and fundamentals.

Overall, if Republicans win in every state they are favored in, they will win 53 seats. However, winning 53 seats would require Republicans winning all four of the “Lean Republican” or “Tilt Republican” states, and my model thinks a Republican sweep of all four of these states is unlikely. This is why my model estimates Republicans winning 51.8 seats on average despite being favored in enough states to win 53 seats.

Competitive States

State Projection Dem Win% Rep Win% Projected Result Polling Average Fundamentals Tipping Point Likelihood
Colorado Likely Democratic 93% 7% Dem +8.5 Dem +8.4 Dem +8.5 1.1%
Washington Likely Democratic 90% 10% Dem +7.5 Dem +4.7 Dem +10.2 1.6%
New Hampshire Lean Democratic 65% 35% Dem +2.3 Dem +2.2 Dem +2.4 8.5%
Arizona Lean Republican 39% 61% Rep +1.6 Dem +1.5 Rep +4.6 14.3%
Nevada Lean Republican 37% 63% Rep +2 Rep +1.4 Rep +2.6 14.7%
Georgia Lean Republican 31% 69% Rep +2.9 Rep +1 Rep +4.7 15.2%
Pennsylvania Lean Republican 31% 69% Rep +3 Rep +0.2 Rep +5.8 14.0%
Wisconsin Likely Republican 16% 84% Rep +5.8 Rep +3.3 Rep +8.3 11.4%
North Carolina Likely Republican 14% 86% Rep +6.3 Rep +4.3 Rep +8.3 10.7%
Ohio Solid Republican 4% 96% Rep +10.5 Rep +6.1 Rep +15 3.9%
Florida Solid Republican 4% 96% Rep +10.6 Rep +8.8 Rep +12.3 3.6%

All States

State Projection Dem Win% Rep Win% Projected Result
Alaska Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +19
Alabama Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +32.4
Arkansas Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +36.6
Arizona Lean Republican 39% 61% Rep +1.6
California Solid Democratic 100% 0% Dem +24.2
Colorado Likely Democratic 93% 7% Dem +8.5
Connecticut Solid Democratic 99% 1% Dem +14.4
Florida Solid Republican 4% 96% Rep +10.6
Georgia Lean Republican 31% 69% Rep +2.9
Hawaii Solid Democratic 100% 0% Dem +24.5
Iowa Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +17.2
Idaho Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +39.8
Illinois Solid Democratic 99% 1% Dem +13.7
Indiana Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +17.3
Kansas Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +23.6
Kentucky Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +34.9
Louisiana Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +27.6
Maryland Solid Democratic 100% 0% Dem +28.3
Missouri Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +17.8
North Carolina Likely Republican 14% 86% Rep +6.3
North Dakota Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +42.3
New Hampshire Lean Democratic 65% 35% Dem +2.3
Nevada Lean Republican 37% 63% Rep +2
New York Solid Democratic 100% 0% Dem +17.9
Ohio Solid Republican 4% 96% Rep +10.5
Oklahoma Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +42
Oklahoma Special Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +40
Oregon Solid Democratic 99% 1% Dem +13
Pennsylvania Lean Republican 31% 69% Rep +3
South Carolina Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +20.6
South Dakota Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +35.1
Utah Solid Republican 0% 100% Rep +29.4
Vermont Solid Democratic 100% 0% Dem +28.5
Washington Likely Democratic 90% 10% Dem +7.5
Wisconsin Likely Republican 16% 84% Rep +5.8