My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

This week I made a change to how my model accounts for recency, which should improve the predictive accuracy of the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.964 0.747 13 0
UConn Big East 2 0.950 0.673 76 0
Purdue Big 10 3 0.936 0.770 5 +1
Arizona Pac 12 4 0.934 0.728 23 -1
Tennessee SEC 5 0.927 0.738 17 0
Auburn SEC 6 0.924 0.681 68 0
Iowa St. Big 12 7 0.919 0.702 49 0
Duke ACC 8 0.914 0.689 61 0
North Carolina ACC 9 0.912 0.735 18 +2
Creighton Big East 10 0.909 0.725 25 0
Marquette Big East 11 0.902 0.753 10 +1
BYU Big 12 12 0.898 0.708 43 +1
Baylor Big 12 13 0.897 0.773 4 +1
Illinois Big 10 14 0.895 0.719 33 +1
Alabama SEC 15 0.892 0.769 6 -6
Kansas Big 12 16 0.886 0.785 1 0
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 17 0.884 0.579 105 0
Gonzaga WCC 18 0.883 0.559 110 +1
Michigan St. Big 10 19 0.874 0.751 11 -1
Texas Big 12 20 0.869 0.742 16 +1
Texas Tech Big 12 21 0.864 0.731 19 +8
Kentucky SEC 22 0.863 0.688 64 +2
San Diego St. MWC 23 0.858 0.713 38 -3
Villanova Big East 24 0.855 0.744 14 -2
TCU Big 12 25 0.854 0.682 66 -2
Cincinnati Big 12 26 0.852 0.722 29 +9
St. John’s (NY) Big East 27 0.851 0.718 34 0
Clemson ACC 28 0.851 0.720 31 0
Boise St. MWC 29 0.848 0.693 56 -3
Colorado Pac 12 30 0.845 0.676 75 +4
Wake Forest ACC 31 0.844 0.678 74 -6
New Mexico MWC 32 0.841 0.643 85 -2
Nebraska Big 10 33 0.841 0.680 72 +6
Wisconsin Big 10 34 0.840 0.768 7 -1
Dayton A-10 35 0.837 0.640 87 -3
Oklahoma Big 12 36 0.837 0.715 37 -5
Pittsburgh ACC 37 0.834 0.651 83 +3
Nevada MWC 38 0.834 0.622 91 +6
Florida SEC 39 0.826 0.688 63 +3
Colorado St. MWC 40 0.823 0.697 53 -2
Fla. Atlantic AAC 41 0.823 0.624 90 0
Washington St. Pac 12 42 0.822 0.655 81 -6
Ohio St. Big 10 43 0.817 0.703 48 +7
Utah St. MWC 44 0.816 0.633 88 +1
UCF Big 12 45 0.815 0.723 27 +4
Mississippi St. SEC 46 0.815 0.705 47 -9
Northwestern Big 10 47 0.814 0.693 55 +5
Indiana St. MVC 48 0.811 0.522 133 -1
Utah Pac 12 49 0.809 0.730 21 -6
Iowa Big 10 50 0.806 0.727 24 -4
Texas A&M SEC 51 0.797 0.712 41 +13
South Carolina SEC 52 0.792 0.641 86 +3
Drake MVC 53 0.789 0.548 115 +4
Virginia Tech ACC 54 0.788 0.693 57 -1
Grand Canyon WAC 55 0.785 0.466 173 +4
Xavier Big East 56 0.784 0.761 8 -2
Kansas St. Big 12 57 0.784 0.748 12 +1
Seton Hall Big East 58 0.782 0.713 39 +8
Providence Big East 59 0.779 0.709 42 -3
Washington Pac 12 60 0.778 0.708 44 +3
SMU AAC 61 0.776 0.569 108 -13
Maryland Big 10 62 0.775 0.689 62 -11
Butler Big East 63 0.774 0.730 20 -3
Bradley MVC 64 0.771 0.574 106 +4
Virginia ACC 65 0.770 0.666 79 -3
Oregon Pac 12 66 0.757 0.690 60 +1
McNeese Southland 67 0.755 0.339 315 -6
San Francisco WCC 68 0.753 0.474 165 +2
UNLV MWC 69 0.746 0.666 78 +8
Princeton Ivy 70 0.746 0.465 174 +5
Memphis AAC 71 0.746 0.619 92 +3
James Madison Sunbelt 72 0.744 0.373 289 -3
Penn St. Big 10 73 0.734 0.697 54 +17
NC State ACC 74 0.733 0.679 73 +2
North Texas AAC 75 0.732 0.600 99 +6
Minnesota Big 10 76 0.731 0.651 82 -11
UC Irvine Big West 77 0.731 0.471 170 -6
Southern California Pac 12 78 0.729 0.719 32 +15
Richmond A-10 79 0.727 0.545 117 -7
Florida St. ACC 80 0.719 0.717 36 +5
VCU A-10 81 0.719 0.608 96 -3
Loyola Chicago A-10 82 0.718 0.561 109 +10
South Fla. AAC 83 0.712 0.516 140 +5
Massachusetts A-10 84 0.712 0.521 135 -1
Indiana Big 10 85 0.710 0.743 15 +15
Miami (FL) ACC 86 0.708 0.680 71 -7
Syracuse ACC 87 0.706 0.723 26 +4
App State Sunbelt 88 0.705 0.444 197 -8
LSU SEC 89 0.701 0.668 77 -2
George Mason A-10 90 0.700 0.556 111 +13
St. Bonaventure A-10 91 0.693 0.554 112 -18
Boston College ACC 92 0.691 0.662 80 +6
Louisiana Tech C-USA 93 0.687 0.481 155 -11
Georgia SEC 94 0.686 0.701 50 +1
Samford Southern 95 0.686 0.416 234 -1
Ole Miss SEC 96 0.685 0.680 70 -12
Yale Ivy 97 0.682 0.498 147 -11
Duquesne A-10 98 0.682 0.608 95 +1
Rutgers Big 10 99 0.681 0.718 35 -10
Oklahoma St. Big 12 100 0.673 0.722 28 -3
Stanford Pac 12 101 0.669 0.681 69 +5
Saint Joseph’s A-10 102 0.669 0.527 128 0
UCLA Pac 12 103 0.668 0.691 58 -2
Col. of Charleston CAA 104 0.663 0.433 221 +6
Santa Clara WCC 105 0.659 0.533 126 +3
Arkansas SEC 106 0.653 0.712 40 +13
Vermont Am. East 107 0.652 0.414 241 -11
Cornell Ivy 108 0.651 0.447 196 +1
UAB AAC 109 0.631 0.611 93 +25
Hofstra CAA 110 0.628 0.464 175 +10
Charlotte AAC 111 0.628 0.583 103 +2
UNI MVC 112 0.622 0.584 102 0
Belmont MVC 113 0.619 0.543 119 +10
Davidson A-10 114 0.618 0.604 98 -10
Notre Dame ACC 115 0.618 0.699 51 0
California Pac 12 116 0.614 0.699 52 -5
Western Caro. Southern 117 0.610 0.430 223 -3
Arizona St. Pac 12 118 0.606 0.729 22 -1
Georgia Tech ACC 119 0.605 0.721 30 +9
UT Arlington WAC 120 0.602 0.533 125 +13
Seattle U WAC 121 0.599 0.473 166 -5
Southern Ill. MVC 122 0.595 0.520 136 -4
UC San Diego Big West 123 0.591 0.438 206 -16
Michigan Big 10 124 0.591 0.778 3 -3
Akron MAC 125 0.589 0.435 213 -20
Tulane AAC 126 0.588 0.580 104 +5
UNCW CAA 127 0.581 0.440 202 -5
Tarleton St. WAC 128 0.581 0.502 144 +1
Morehead St. OVC 129 0.576 0.339 314 +6
Toledo MAC 130 0.576 0.453 188 +20
Drexel CAA 131 0.575 0.422 226 -7
West Virginia Big 12 132 0.574 0.780 2 -7
High Point Big South 133 0.573 0.379 283 -1
Troy Sunbelt 134 0.573 0.434 215 -8
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 135 0.572 0.475 163 +19
South Dakota St. Summit 136 0.564 0.440 204 +9
Oakland Horizon 137 0.562 0.456 183 +1
Towson CAA 138 0.557 0.457 182 +10
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 139 0.556 0.366 296 +1
Youngstown St. Horizon 140 0.553 0.376 286 -13
Oregon St. Pac 12 141 0.553 0.708 45 +12
Liberty C-USA 142 0.552 0.472 167 -12
Wyoming MWC 143 0.550 0.648 84 +26
Missouri SEC 144 0.549 0.685 65 -5
Wichita St. AAC 145 0.547 0.593 100 -2
Sam Houston WAC 146 0.545 0.476 161 +14
Furman Southern 147 0.540 0.471 169 0
Chattanooga Southern 148 0.538 0.415 238 +4
Ohio MAC 149 0.536 0.384 275 +10
Colgate Patriot 150 0.531 0.338 319 -13
Weber St. Big Sky 151 0.531 0.415 235 -15
Western Ky. C-USA 152 0.530 0.425 225 -1
Montana Big Sky 153 0.530 0.420 230 +2
Missouri St. MVC 154 0.528 0.532 127 +7
UNC Greensboro Southern 155 0.525 0.441 201 -13
SFA WAC 156 0.519 0.471 168 +9
Utah Valley WAC 157 0.516 0.522 132 +9
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 158 0.515 0.338 320 0
Longwood Big South 159 0.509 0.363 298 +23
Hawaii Big West 160 0.507 0.443 198 +4
Louisiana Sunbelt 161 0.507 0.453 187 -20
Wright St. Horizon 162 0.506 0.417 233 -5
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 163 0.505 0.433 217 -19
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 164 0.503 0.351 304 -1
UMass Lowell Am. East 165 0.501 0.348 309 -16
Murray St. MVC 166 0.498 0.554 113 -20
UC Davis Big West 167 0.494 0.433 220 +16
Georgetown Big East 168 0.480 0.690 59 +8
LMU (CA) WCC 169 0.478 0.517 137 -7
UNC Asheville Big South 170 0.477 0.440 203 -14
Fairfield MAAC 171 0.472 0.329 327 +2
ETSU Southern 172 0.472 0.442 199 +30
Lipscomb A-Sun 173 0.468 0.385 272 -3
Delaware CAA 174 0.468 0.401 255 0
East Carolina AAC 175 0.465 0.542 120 +5
UTEP C-USA 176 0.464 0.475 162 +3
Saint Louis A-10 177 0.462 0.625 89 +20
Illinois St. MVC 178 0.459 0.516 139 -3
Bryant Am. East 179 0.459 0.422 227 +5
Fordham A-10 180 0.459 0.541 121 -2
Louisville ACC 181 0.459 0.681 67 -4
Vanderbilt SEC 182 0.459 0.706 46 +23
Tulsa AAC 183 0.458 0.480 156 +8
Stony Brook CAA 184 0.458 0.436 210 +11
Little Rock OVC 185 0.457 0.293 349 +13
Winthrop Big South 186 0.455 0.421 229 -19
Kent St. MAC 187 0.454 0.432 222 -19
George Washington A-10 188 0.451 0.507 142 +23
Texas St. Sunbelt 189 0.450 0.511 141 +29
La Salle A-10 190 0.450 0.521 134 0
Long Beach St. Big West 191 0.448 0.450 191 -20
California Baptist WAC 192 0.444 0.448 194 -20
Northern Ky. Horizon 193 0.440 0.415 239 +3
Quinnipiac MAAC 194 0.440 0.314 338 +13
Northern Colo. Big Sky 195 0.433 0.381 279 -2
UIC MVC 196 0.432 0.544 118 -9
Jacksonville St. C-USA 197 0.431 0.435 211 -11
Kansas City Summit 198 0.428 0.408 245 +8
Monmouth CAA 199 0.428 0.438 207 -7
Cleveland St. Horizon 200 0.427 0.380 281 +12
Brown Ivy 201 0.427 0.459 181 +19
UC Riverside Big West 202 0.426 0.480 157 +32
Lamar University Southland 203 0.425 0.319 331 -4
Wofford Southern 204 0.424 0.480 159 -19
Temple AAC 205 0.418 0.533 124 -16
Abilene Christian WAC 206 0.416 0.480 158 +7
Pepperdine WCC 207 0.415 0.523 131 +23
Rhode Island A-10 208 0.413 0.593 101 0
UC Santa Barbara Big West 209 0.411 0.433 219 -21
Rice AAC 210 0.410 0.571 107 -1
Merrimack NEC 211 0.409 0.291 351 -10
Saint Peter’s MAAC 212 0.408 0.342 313 -31
Mercer Southern 213 0.408 0.454 185 +4
Penn Ivy 214 0.400 0.526 129 -11
North Dakota Summit 215 0.399 0.366 295 +6
Rider MAAC 216 0.399 0.398 259 +9
Gardner-Webb Big South 217 0.398 0.478 160 -17
Georgia St. Sunbelt 218 0.397 0.452 190 -14
Stetson A-Sun 219 0.395 0.415 237 -4
UTSA AAC 220 0.389 0.490 148 +13
Evansville MVC 221 0.388 0.525 130 +2
UT Martin OVC 222 0.387 0.317 334 +2
Milwaukee Horizon 223 0.387 0.388 268 +16
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 224 0.383 0.404 249 -8
CSU Bakersfield Big West 225 0.382 0.455 184 +2
Fresno St. MWC 226 0.380 0.610 94 -32
Austin Peay A-Sun 227 0.380 0.402 254 +8
Marist MAAC 228 0.380 0.295 348 -14
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 229 0.375 0.486 152 +2
South Alabama Sunbelt 230 0.374 0.433 218 +6
CSUN Big West 231 0.373 0.393 264 +11
Montana St. Big Sky 232 0.368 0.408 246 +19
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 233 0.367 0.310 342 -4
FGCU A-Sun 234 0.367 0.418 232 +6
San Jose St. MWC 235 0.366 0.606 97 +6
Bowling Green MAC 236 0.366 0.355 303 +11
Harvard Ivy 237 0.366 0.459 179 -15
Nicholls Southland 238 0.362 0.399 258 +24
Air Force MWC 239 0.362 0.547 116 +7
Iona MAAC 240 0.360 0.360 301 -30
UAlbany Am. East 241 0.359 0.376 285 +8
Radford Big South 242 0.357 0.422 228 +1
Marshall Sunbelt 243 0.357 0.488 151 +5
Southern Utah WAC 244 0.357 0.488 150 -7
Maine Am. East 245 0.356 0.393 262 -17
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 246 0.355 0.449 193 -8
Columbia Ivy 247 0.354 0.412 242 -21
Green Bay Horizon 248 0.352 0.402 253 -16
Northeastern CAA 249 0.350 0.435 214 -4
North Florida A-Sun 250 0.348 0.391 266 0
N.C. Central MEAC 251 0.348 0.284 353 -7
North Ala. A-Sun 252 0.345 0.388 267 +4
Lehigh Patriot 253 0.341 0.316 335 +17
Idaho St. Big Sky 254 0.341 0.380 282 -1
Omaha Summit 255 0.341 0.400 256 -3
Norfolk St. MEAC 256 0.337 0.310 341 +10
Miami (OH) MAC 257 0.336 0.392 265 -38
Portland St. Big Sky 258 0.335 0.384 276 +5
North Dakota St. Summit 259 0.333 0.448 195 -4
New Hampshire Am. East 260 0.332 0.414 240 -3
UMBC Am. East 261 0.331 0.361 300 +3
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 262 0.331 0.454 186 +14
Ball St. MAC 263 0.327 0.349 306 +2
San Diego WCC 264 0.327 0.517 138 -6
The Citadel Southern 265 0.326 0.437 209 -11
Denver Summit 266 0.324 0.403 252 -7
Queens (NC) A-Sun 267 0.323 0.434 216 +4
Oral Roberts Summit 268 0.315 0.461 177 0
Bucknell Patriot 269 0.314 0.338 318 +18
Presbyterian Big South 270 0.314 0.365 297 +3
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 271 0.312 0.368 291 -11
Niagara MAAC 272 0.307 0.329 326 0
Central Mich. MAC 273 0.303 0.407 247 +4
Middle Tenn. C-USA 274 0.301 0.501 145 +17
FIU C-USA 275 0.301 0.462 176 +3
Central Conn. St. NEC 276 0.300 0.248 362 -15
Southern U. SWAC 277 0.299 0.347 310 -8
Utah Tech WAC 278 0.299 0.485 153 +3
Texas Southern SWAC 279 0.295 0.330 325 0
Jacksonville A-Sun 280 0.294 0.393 261 +17
Canisius MAAC 281 0.288 0.383 277 -6
Binghamton Am. East 282 0.287 0.382 278 +1
Old Dominion Sunbelt 283 0.286 0.482 154 -1
Western Ill. OVC 284 0.286 0.316 336 -17
Portland WCC 285 0.285 0.549 114 +10
New Mexico St. C-USA 286 0.277 0.537 123 +3
USC Upstate Big South 287 0.277 0.435 212 -3
Western Mich. MAC 288 0.277 0.404 250 +2
SIUE OVC 289 0.276 0.314 339 -4
ULM Sunbelt 290 0.271 0.466 172 -2
Howard MEAC 291 0.268 0.304 345 -5
American Patriot 292 0.267 0.273 356 -18
Sacred Heart NEC 293 0.263 0.266 358 -1
Le Moyne NEC 294 0.261 0.263 359 +11
Tennessee St. OVC 295 0.259 0.309 343 +5
Grambling SWAC 296 0.258 0.349 307 +7
Alcorn SWAC 297 0.257 0.362 299 -1
Southeastern La. Southland 298 0.255 0.381 280 -18
NIU MAC 299 0.255 0.469 171 -1
Valparaiso MVC 300 0.254 0.538 122 -7
Robert Morris Horizon 301 0.253 0.399 257 -2
Boston U. Patriot 302 0.253 0.286 352 0
DePaul Big East 303 0.251 0.760 9 +4
Chicago St. Independent 304 0.250 0.420 231 -3
Sacramento St. Big Sky 305 0.240 0.429 224 +18
Wagner NEC 306 0.239 0.257 360 +14
Jackson St. SWAC 307 0.236 0.319 332 -13
Campbell CAA 308 0.236 0.367 292 -4
South Carolina St. MEAC 309 0.235 0.338 317 -1
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 310 0.235 0.450 192 0
William & Mary CAA 311 0.230 0.367 294 +10
Bellarmine A-Sun 312 0.226 0.452 189 +3
South Dakota Summit 313 0.222 0.385 274 -4
Delaware St. MEAC 314 0.220 0.301 346 -8
Elon CAA 315 0.219 0.371 290 -3
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 316 0.219 0.412 243 -2
Eastern Ill. OVC 317 0.214 0.336 321 -4
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 318 0.213 0.277 354 +1
Idaho Big Sky 319 0.212 0.398 260 -8
Northwestern St. Southland 320 0.211 0.376 284 -2
Navy Patriot 321 0.207 0.255 361 +1
Alabama St. SWAC 322 0.206 0.325 329 -5
Lafayette Patriot 323 0.205 0.344 312 -7
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.202 0.474 164 0
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 325 0.193 0.409 244 0
Eastern Mich. MAC 326 0.192 0.373 288 +5
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 327 0.176 0.271 357 0
UTRGV WAC 328 0.175 0.503 143 -2
Southern Ind. OVC 329 0.174 0.357 302 -1
Cal Poly Big West 330 0.172 0.459 180 +13
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 331 0.167 0.306 344 +1
New Orleans Southland 332 0.167 0.386 271 +3
Alabama A&M SWAC 333 0.165 0.311 340 +7
NJIT Am. East 334 0.164 0.403 251 -4
Dartmouth Ivy 335 0.162 0.490 149 +6
Morgan St. MEAC 336 0.159 0.350 305 +9
Central Ark. A-Sun 337 0.159 0.367 293 -4
UIW Southland 338 0.154 0.334 322 -9
Hampton CAA 339 0.149 0.375 287 -3
Tennessee Tech OVC 340 0.149 0.349 308 -1
Buffalo MAC 341 0.148 0.438 205 -3
Manhattan MAAC 342 0.146 0.387 269 +6
Prairie View SWAC 343 0.145 0.325 328 -9
Florida A&M SWAC 344 0.140 0.393 263 0
Detroit Mercy Horizon 345 0.138 0.437 208 +4
N.C. A&T Big South 346 0.136 0.415 236 -4
Army West Point Patriot 347 0.132 0.276 355 -10
LIU NEC 348 0.130 0.315 337 +2
Holy Cross Patriot 349 0.130 0.293 350 +2
Loyola Maryland Patriot 350 0.124 0.318 333 -3
Houston Christian Southland 351 0.122 0.441 200 +1
Pacific WCC 352 0.119 0.500 146 -6
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 353 0.110 0.339 316 0
UMES MEAC 354 0.108 0.331 323 0
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 355 0.100 0.301 347 +1
Lindenwood OVC 356 0.099 0.319 330 -1
Stonehill NEC 357 0.090 0.346 311 +1
Siena MAAC 358 0.088 0.385 273 +1
VMI Southern 359 0.087 0.460 178 -2
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.081 0.386 270 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.067 0.330 324 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.046 0.405 248 0