Below are my projections for the upcoming NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The percentages indicate the likelihood that each team advances to the given round. My model is based on my overall rankings while also adjusting for differences in travel distance between teams based on the location of the tournament games.
My model has Houston and UConn as the favorites to win the tournament, while Arizona, Purdue, Iowa State, Auburn, and Tennessee all each have at least a 5% chance of winning. If you are looking to make a value pick, Houston, Iowa State, Arizona, and Auburn would be my recommendations, as their chances of winning are each significantly higher than the percentage of the public picking them to win. For early round upsets, my model has New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado as outright favorites to win their opening game, while Oregon is a coin-flip against South Carolina.
| Team | Expected WP% vs Avg Opponent | Seed | Region | Round of 32% | Sweet 16% | Elite 8% | Final Four% | Champ Game% | Winner% | Winner Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 0.961 | 1 | South | 96% | 78% | 60% | 47% | 32% | 20.8% | 1 |
| UConn | 0.952 | 1 | East | 98% | 82% | 55% | 36% | 24% | 14.1% | 2 |
| Arizona | 0.933 | 2 | West | 94% | 67% | 44% | 28% | 16% | 9.6% | 3 |
| Purdue | 0.934 | 1 | Midwest | 98% | 76% | 54% | 34% | 19% | 9.6% | 4 |
| Iowa St. | 0.940 | 2 | East | 93% | 73% | 47% | 24% | 15% | 7.9% | 5 |
| Auburn | 0.935 | 4 | East | 87% | 62% | 30% | 17% | 10% | 5.2% | 6 |
| Tennessee | 0.917 | 2 | Midwest | 94% | 63% | 42% | 22% | 11% | 5.0% | 7 |
| North Carolina | 0.910 | 1 | West | 97% | 64% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3.6% | 8 |
| Duke | 0.906 | 4 | South | 84% | 54% | 20% | 12% | 6% | 2.4% | 9 |
| Creighton | 0.900 | 3 | Midwest | 81% | 55% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2.4% | 10 |
| Marquette | 0.897 | 2 | South | 86% | 53% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2.3% | 11 |
| Baylor | 0.896 | 3 | West | 88% | 51% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1.9% | 12 |
| Illinois | 0.896 | 3 | East | 87% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 4% | 1.6% | 13 |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | 0.891 | 5 | West | 69% | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1.5% | 14 |
| BYU | 0.895 | 6 | East | 77% | 42% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1.4% | 15 |
| Alabama | 0.884 | 4 | West | 80% | 42% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1.2% | 16 |
| Gonzaga | 0.881 | 5 | Midwest | 71% | 42% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1.1% | 17 |
| Kansas | 0.871 | 4 | Midwest | 76% | 40% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0.9% | 18 |
| Texas Tech | 0.864 | 6 | South | 62% | 35% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0.8% | 19 |
| Kentucky | 0.852 | 3 | South | 83% | 44% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 0.7% | 20 |
| New Mexico | 0.868 | 11 | West | 56% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0.7% | 21 |
| Michigan St. | 0.876 | 9 | West | 58% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0.6% | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 0.863 | 5 | South | 66% | 30% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0.5% | 23 |
| Colorado | 0.857 | 10 | South | 55% | 25% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0.5% | 24 |
| San Diego St. | 0.864 | 5 | East | 77% | 30% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 25 |
| Texas | 0.861 | 7 | Midwest | 55% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0.5% | 26 |
| TCU | 0.856 | 9 | Midwest | 60% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.4% | 27 |
| Nebraska | 0.845 | 8 | South | 57% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% | 28 |
| Colorado St. | 0.837 | 10 | Midwest | 45% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% | 29 |
| Florida | 0.830 | 7 | South | 45% | 19% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | 30 |
| Nevada | 0.829 | 10 | West | 52% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% | 31 |
| Clemson | 0.829 | 6 | West | 44% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | 32 |
| Mississippi St. | 0.837 | 8 | West | 42% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | 33 |
| Dayton | 0.829 | 7 | West | 48% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | 34 |
| Washington St. | 0.830 | 7 | East | 50% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 35 |
| Texas A&M | 0.803 | 9 | South | 43% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 36 |
| Grand Canyon | 0.788 | 12 | West | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 37 |
| Oregon | 0.786 | 11 | Midwest | 50% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% | 38 |
| South Carolina | 0.775 | 6 | Midwest | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 39 |
| Utah St. | 0.803 | 8 | Midwest | 40% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 40 |
| NC State | 0.779 | 11 | South | 38% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 41 |
| Fla. Atlantic | 0.813 | 8 | East | 51% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 42 |
| Drake | 0.789 | 10 | East | 50% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 43 |
| Northwestern | 0.804 | 9 | East | 49% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.1% | 44 |
| McNeese | 0.755 | 12 | Midwest | 29% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 45 |
| James Madison | 0.753 | 12 | South | 34% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% | 46 |
| Duquesne | 0.721 | 11 | East | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 47 |
| Samford | 0.681 | 13 | Midwest | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 48 |
| Yale | 0.685 | 13 | East | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 49 |
| Akron | 0.596 | 14 | Midwest | 19% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 50 |
| Col. of Charleston | 0.653 | 13 | West | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 51 |
| Vermont | 0.642 | 13 | South | 16% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 52 |
| UAB | 0.660 | 12 | East | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 53 |
| Western Ky. | 0.574 | 15 | South | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 54 |
| Oakland | 0.557 | 14 | South | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 55 |
| Morehead St. | 0.569 | 14 | East | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 56 |
| South Dakota St. | 0.571 | 15 | East | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 57 |
| Colgate | 0.541 | 14 | West | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 58 |
| Long Beach St. | 0.490 | 15 | West | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 59 |
| Longwood | 0.499 | 16 | South | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 60 |
| Saint Peter’s | 0.422 | 15 | Midwest | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 61 |
| Stetson | 0.387 | 16 | East | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 62 |
| Grambling | 0.294 | 16 | Midwest | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 63 |
| Wagner | 0.256 | 16 | West | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% | 64 |