Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/24/24. My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.960 0.748 13 0
UConn Big East 2 0.956 0.680 75 0
Purdue Big 10 3 0.942 0.762 9 +2
Iowa St. Big 12 4 0.938 0.717 37 -1
Arizona Pac 12 5 0.933 0.727 29 +1
Auburn SEC 6 0.928 0.687 66 -2
Tennessee SEC 7 0.922 0.734 18 0
Duke ACC 8 0.922 0.690 62 +1
North Carolina ACC 9 0.917 0.732 19 -1
Creighton Big East 10 0.905 0.720 33 0
Illinois Big 10 11 0.901 0.719 34 +2
Marquette Big East 12 0.899 0.760 10 -1
Gonzaga WCC 13 0.897 0.592 101 +4
Baylor Big 12 14 0.891 0.771 5 -2
Alabama SEC 15 0.886 0.765 8 +1
BYU Big 12 16 0.885 0.708 49 -2
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 17 0.881 0.598 99 -2
Michigan St. Big 10 18 0.878 0.765 6 0
San Diego St. MWC 19 0.870 0.714 40 +5
Texas Big 12 20 0.866 0.744 14 +3
Clemson ACC 21 0.857 0.730 23 +17
St. John’s (NY) Big East 22 0.855 0.728 28 +4
Colorado Pac 12 23 0.855 0.706 50 +6
Wisconsin Big 10 24 0.853 0.775 2 -2
New Mexico MWC 25 0.852 0.656 85 -4
Cincinnati Big 12 26 0.852 0.721 32 +1
Kansas Big 12 27 0.851 0.781 1 -8
Texas Tech Big 12 28 0.848 0.740 16 -8
Pittsburgh ACC 29 0.843 0.669 81 +2
Kentucky SEC 30 0.841 0.682 71 -2
TCU Big 12 31 0.839 0.696 60 -6
Boise St. MWC 32 0.833 0.702 54 0
Nebraska Big 10 33 0.831 0.688 65 -3
Wake Forest ACC 34 0.830 0.684 69 +1
Washington St. Pac 12 35 0.830 0.679 77 +4
Dayton A-10 36 0.829 0.660 84 +4
Florida SEC 37 0.828 0.710 46 0
Oklahoma Big 12 38 0.828 0.711 45 -2
Colorado St. MWC 39 0.827 0.703 52 +5
Mississippi St. SEC 40 0.825 0.723 31 -7
Villanova Big East 41 0.824 0.735 17 -7
Nevada MWC 42 0.823 0.632 89 -1
Utah Pac 12 43 0.823 0.729 25 0
Texas A&M SEC 44 0.819 0.728 27 +5
Ohio St. Big 10 45 0.818 0.708 48 -3
Indiana St. MVC 46 0.813 0.527 127 +1
Northwestern Big 10 47 0.810 0.712 44 +1
Fla. Atlantic AAC 48 0.801 0.621 91 -2
Grand Canyon WAC 49 0.797 0.497 144 +4
Iowa Big 10 50 0.795 0.731 21 +1
NC State ACC 51 0.794 0.696 61 +6
UCF Big 12 52 0.793 0.717 36 -7
Oregon Pac 12 53 0.791 0.715 39 +2
Utah St. MWC 54 0.790 0.653 87 -4
Drake MVC 55 0.785 0.551 114 -1
Providence Big East 56 0.783 0.715 38 -4
Virginia Tech ACC 57 0.782 0.696 59 +3
Xavier Big East 58 0.772 0.765 7 +1
Washington Pac 12 59 0.772 0.709 47 +2
Seton Hall Big East 60 0.771 0.712 43 +4
Kansas St. Big 12 61 0.770 0.753 12 -5
Bradley MVC 62 0.763 0.582 104 +1
Butler Big East 63 0.763 0.726 30 -1
South Carolina SEC 64 0.761 0.654 86 -6
UNLV MWC 65 0.755 0.673 80 +6
Maryland Big 10 66 0.755 0.688 64 0
San Francisco WCC 67 0.755 0.500 142 +3
VCU A-10 68 0.750 0.617 92 +6
Virginia ACC 69 0.745 0.679 76 -4
SMU AAC 70 0.744 0.565 109 -1
Boston College ACC 71 0.740 0.679 78 +1
James Madison Sunbelt 72 0.738 0.400 244 -4
McNeese Southland 73 0.730 0.347 307 -6
Southern California Pac 12 74 0.728 0.731 20 +2
Penn St. Big 10 75 0.727 0.690 63 0
Minnesota Big 10 76 0.727 0.664 83 +2
North Texas AAC 77 0.726 0.608 94 -4
Memphis AAC 78 0.725 0.607 95 -1
Florida St. ACC 79 0.721 0.729 26 +4
Duquesne A-10 80 0.713 0.634 88 -1
UC Irvine Big West 81 0.710 0.476 155 +1
South Fla. AAC 82 0.708 0.524 130 +3
Richmond A-10 83 0.706 0.554 112 -3
Georgia SEC 84 0.703 0.702 53 +9
Princeton Ivy 85 0.700 0.467 165 -4
Miami (FL) ACC 86 0.698 0.682 72 +3
Loyola Chicago A-10 87 0.697 0.566 107 -3
Massachusetts A-10 88 0.695 0.523 131 -1
Syracuse ACC 89 0.694 0.730 24 +3
App State Sunbelt 90 0.692 0.443 192 -4
Samford Southern 91 0.685 0.425 214 +6
George Mason A-10 92 0.683 0.551 115 -1
Saint Joseph’s A-10 93 0.682 0.544 119 +2
LSU SEC 94 0.681 0.669 82 -6
Ole Miss SEC 95 0.680 0.681 74 +1
Indiana Big 10 96 0.680 0.741 15 -2
UCLA Pac 12 97 0.676 0.687 67 +2
Yale Ivy 98 0.675 0.526 129 -8
St. Bonaventure A-10 99 0.675 0.554 111 -1
Stanford Pac 12 100 0.666 0.682 73 0
Rutgers Big 10 101 0.662 0.714 41 0
Louisiana Tech C-USA 102 0.661 0.464 171 0
UAB AAC 103 0.660 0.605 97 0
Santa Clara WCC 104 0.652 0.545 117 +2
Oklahoma St. Big 12 105 0.644 0.712 42 -1
Col. of Charleston CAA 106 0.644 0.443 193 -1
Cornell Ivy 107 0.636 0.459 176 +1
Vermont Am. East 108 0.634 0.426 211 -1
Arkansas SEC 109 0.631 0.701 55 0
Seattle U WAC 110 0.619 0.468 163 0
UT Arlington WAC 111 0.615 0.533 125 0
UNI MVC 112 0.613 0.576 105 0
Notre Dame ACC 113 0.610 0.700 56 +2
Hofstra CAA 114 0.606 0.454 178 0
Charlotte AAC 115 0.605 0.566 108 +1
Belmont MVC 116 0.605 0.533 124 -3
California Pac 12 117 0.602 0.698 58 +1
Western Caro. Southern 118 0.600 0.419 227 -1
Georgia Tech ACC 119 0.599 0.718 35 +2
Davidson A-10 120 0.595 0.593 100 -1
Southern Ill. MVC 121 0.590 0.509 140 +1
Tarleton St. WAC 122 0.589 0.484 149 +12
Akron MAC 123 0.588 0.445 189 -3
Michigan Big 10 124 0.585 0.774 3 0
Oakland Horizon 125 0.580 0.470 159 +12
Tulane AAC 126 0.575 0.576 106 0
Arizona St. Pac 12 127 0.572 0.731 22 +4
UNCW CAA 128 0.572 0.426 210 -1
West Virginia Big 12 129 0.569 0.773 4 -4
Drexel CAA 130 0.568 0.411 233 0
South Dakota St. Summit 131 0.567 0.450 181 -2
UC San Diego Big West 132 0.566 0.423 216 -9
Western Ky. C-USA 133 0.564 0.421 221 -5
High Point Big South 134 0.562 0.366 286 +1
Troy Sunbelt 135 0.561 0.422 219 -2
Morehead St. OVC 136 0.561 0.348 306 -4
Toledo MAC 137 0.555 0.446 188 -1
Youngstown St. Horizon 138 0.552 0.370 283 +1
Ohio MAC 139 0.546 0.376 273 -1
Wichita St. AAC 140 0.543 0.582 103 +1
Towson CAA 141 0.542 0.451 179 +1
Oregon St. Pac 12 142 0.540 0.706 51 +4
Missouri SEC 143 0.540 0.677 79 +2
Sam Houston WAC 144 0.537 0.457 177 -1
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 145 0.532 0.362 289 +2
Furman Southern 146 0.530 0.460 174 +3
Chattanooga Southern 147 0.530 0.406 237 +1
Liberty C-USA 148 0.529 0.459 175 +2
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 149 0.526 0.463 172 -9
Wyoming MWC 150 0.524 0.632 90 +1
Missouri St. MVC 151 0.520 0.523 132 +1
Colgate Patriot 152 0.519 0.345 309 -8
UNC Greensboro Southern 153 0.517 0.430 206 0
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 154 0.512 0.334 317 0
Weber St. Big Sky 155 0.503 0.403 241 +1
Wright St. Horizon 156 0.501 0.411 232 +6
UMass Lowell Am. East 157 0.501 0.350 304 0
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 158 0.497 0.422 217 +1
Louisiana Sunbelt 159 0.496 0.438 196 -1
Hawaii Big West 160 0.495 0.432 204 0
Montana Big Sky 161 0.495 0.399 245 -6
Murray St. MVC 162 0.490 0.544 120 +1
Long Beach St. Big West 163 0.488 0.468 162 +1
Utah Valley WAC 164 0.485 0.512 138 +3
Kent St. MAC 165 0.483 0.431 205 0
UC Davis Big West 166 0.481 0.426 212 0
Longwood Big South 167 0.478 0.379 269 -6
LMU (CA) WCC 168 0.477 0.513 136 +3
Fordham A-10 169 0.472 0.544 118 -1
SFA WAC 170 0.471 0.464 170 +3
UTEP C-USA 171 0.466 0.470 158 -2
UNC Asheville Big South 172 0.466 0.429 208 0
Fairfield MAAC 173 0.465 0.328 318 +1
Louisville ACC 174 0.462 0.683 70 +9
Delaware CAA 175 0.462 0.391 255 +2
Temple AAC 176 0.461 0.542 121 0
Stony Brook CAA 177 0.460 0.439 195 -2
Georgetown Big East 178 0.459 0.686 68 +1
ETSU Southern 179 0.457 0.438 197 +1
Lipscomb A-Sun 180 0.456 0.371 280 -2
Saint Louis A-10 181 0.453 0.617 93 +3
Vanderbilt SEC 182 0.451 0.699 57 +3
La Salle A-10 183 0.449 0.519 134 +3
Brown Ivy 184 0.449 0.465 168 -3
Illinois St. MVC 185 0.447 0.507 141 +3
Bryant Am. East 186 0.447 0.416 230 +1
Winthrop Big South 187 0.446 0.408 235 +2
Quinnipiac MAAC 188 0.446 0.309 334 -6
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 189 0.441 0.335 315 -19
East Carolina AAC 190 0.441 0.534 122 +1
George Washington A-10 191 0.440 0.496 145 +1
Tulsa AAC 192 0.439 0.466 167 +1
California Baptist WAC 193 0.430 0.449 182 +2
Texas St. Sunbelt 194 0.430 0.496 146 0
Cleveland St. Horizon 195 0.430 0.383 264 +1
Little Rock OVC 196 0.427 0.286 348 -6
UIC MVC 197 0.423 0.534 123 0
Northern Ky. Horizon 198 0.421 0.407 236 +1
Monmouth CAA 199 0.417 0.425 215 +1
Wofford Southern 200 0.413 0.468 161 +2
Pepperdine WCC 201 0.410 0.520 133 +5
Kansas City Summit 202 0.410 0.396 248 -1
Rhode Island A-10 203 0.408 0.585 102 +2
Northern Colo. Big Sky 204 0.406 0.370 282 0
Lamar University Southland 205 0.403 0.308 336 -2
Jacksonville St. C-USA 206 0.402 0.419 225 +2
UC Santa Barbara Big West 207 0.400 0.422 218 +2
Rice AAC 208 0.397 0.559 110 +3
Abilene Christian WAC 209 0.396 0.478 153 -2
Saint Peter’s MAAC 210 0.395 0.362 288 -12
UC Riverside Big West 211 0.395 0.469 160 +1
Mercer Southern 212 0.395 0.444 191 +2
Penn Ivy 213 0.391 0.515 135 0
Fresno St. MWC 214 0.388 0.605 96 +3
Milwaukee Horizon 215 0.388 0.388 259 +4
Gardner-Webb Big South 216 0.387 0.466 166 0
Georgia St. Sunbelt 217 0.383 0.436 199 +1
Evansville MVC 218 0.383 0.513 137 +6
Merrimack NEC 219 0.382 0.282 351 +3
North Dakota Summit 220 0.382 0.354 298 0
Rider MAAC 221 0.382 0.388 257 -6
Montana St. Big Sky 222 0.380 0.393 252 -12
UT Martin OVC 223 0.376 0.308 335 +2
Marist MAAC 224 0.374 0.290 346 +2
UTSA AAC 225 0.371 0.477 154 +2
Nicholls Southland 226 0.370 0.382 266 -3
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 227 0.369 0.391 256 +1
Stetson A-Sun 228 0.368 0.425 213 -7
CSUN Big West 229 0.368 0.388 260 +1
San Jose St. MWC 230 0.366 0.604 98 +3
CSU Bakersfield Big West 231 0.364 0.444 190 +1
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 232 0.363 0.475 156 -1
Harvard Ivy 233 0.359 0.449 184 +2
South Alabama Sunbelt 234 0.358 0.419 226 0
Bowling Green MAC 235 0.354 0.352 300 +1
Green Bay Horizon 236 0.351 0.398 246 +8
Southern Utah WAC 237 0.351 0.480 151 +8
FGCU A-Sun 238 0.350 0.403 240 -1
UAlbany Am. East 239 0.349 0.368 284 -1
Columbia Ivy 240 0.348 0.404 238 -1
Maine Am. East 241 0.348 0.383 265 -1
Radford Big South 242 0.348 0.410 234 +1
Iona MAAC 243 0.348 0.347 308 -1
Marshall Sunbelt 244 0.346 0.475 157 -3
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 245 0.343 0.434 201 +1
Air Force MWC 246 0.342 0.552 113 +2
Northeastern CAA 247 0.340 0.422 220 0
Austin Peay A-Sun 248 0.340 0.381 267 -19
Norfolk St. MEAC 249 0.339 0.283 350 +5
New Hampshire Am. East 250 0.337 0.416 229 0
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 251 0.335 0.301 342 -2
North Florida A-Sun 252 0.332 0.375 274 -1
North Ala. A-Sun 253 0.330 0.372 279 -1
Idaho St. Big Sky 254 0.329 0.374 276 -1
Omaha Summit 255 0.325 0.384 263 0
Portland St. Big Sky 256 0.325 0.376 272 0
San Diego WCC 257 0.322 0.510 139 +6
North Dakota St. Summit 258 0.322 0.436 200 -1
Miami (OH) MAC 259 0.321 0.386 261 -1
The Citadel Southern 260 0.321 0.430 207 +2
Denver Summit 261 0.320 0.392 253 -1
Lehigh Patriot 262 0.317 0.314 329 -3
Ball St. MAC 263 0.316 0.338 311 +1
UMBC Am. East 264 0.315 0.351 303 -3
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 265 0.310 0.439 194 0
Oral Roberts Summit 266 0.309 0.451 180 +1
Queens (NC) A-Sun 267 0.307 0.420 223 -1
N.C. Central MEAC 268 0.304 0.263 357 0
Presbyterian Big South 269 0.304 0.357 294 +2
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 270 0.300 0.352 301 0
Bucknell Patriot 271 0.298 0.326 321 -2
Central Conn. St. NEC 272 0.296 0.242 362 0
Grambling SWAC 273 0.294 0.361 291 +10
Utah Tech WAC 274 0.292 0.478 152 0
Texas Southern SWAC 275 0.292 0.322 325 +1
FIU C-USA 276 0.289 0.449 183 -3
Niagara MAAC 277 0.283 0.310 331 -2
Central Mich. MAC 278 0.282 0.395 249 -1
Canisius MAAC 279 0.281 0.374 275 -1
Middle Tenn. C-USA 280 0.279 0.499 143 0
Southern U. SWAC 281 0.279 0.342 310 +6
Portland WCC 282 0.278 0.546 116 +4
Binghamton Am. East 283 0.277 0.373 277 -1
Jacksonville A-Sun 284 0.277 0.378 270 -5
Western Ill. OVC 285 0.276 0.305 338 0
Howard MEAC 286 0.275 0.286 347 -5
Old Dominion Sunbelt 287 0.274 0.467 164 -3
SIUE OVC 288 0.267 0.303 341 0
USC Upstate Big South 289 0.263 0.420 222 0
Chicago St. Independent 290 0.263 0.417 228 +14
DePaul Big East 291 0.263 0.760 11 -1
American Patriot 292 0.259 0.262 358 -1
ULM Sunbelt 293 0.256 0.449 185 -1
Sacred Heart NEC 294 0.255 0.259 359 -1
New Mexico St. C-USA 295 0.254 0.526 128 -1
Tennessee St. OVC 296 0.251 0.299 343 -1
Le Moyne NEC 297 0.250 0.254 360 -1
Robert Morris Horizon 298 0.249 0.394 251 +2
Wagner NEC 299 0.248 0.275 354 -2
NIU MAC 300 0.248 0.460 173 -2
Western Mich. MAC 301 0.247 0.397 247 -2
Valparaiso MVC 302 0.246 0.530 126 0
Boston U. Patriot 303 0.242 0.276 353 0
Delaware St. MEAC 304 0.241 0.297 344 +1
Southeastern La. Southland 305 0.240 0.362 290 -4
Alcorn SWAC 306 0.236 0.353 299 +1
Sacramento St. Big Sky 307 0.228 0.415 231 -1
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 308 0.227 0.280 352 +5
Jackson St. SWAC 309 0.225 0.313 330 +2
Campbell CAA 310 0.225 0.354 297 -2
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 311 0.221 0.434 202 -2
William & Mary CAA 312 0.219 0.355 295 -2
Bellarmine A-Sun 313 0.213 0.437 198 -1
South Dakota Summit 314 0.212 0.373 278 0
South Carolina St. MEAC 315 0.211 0.326 320 0
Elon CAA 316 0.211 0.359 293 0
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 317 0.209 0.402 242 0
Eastern Ill. OVC 318 0.205 0.325 322 0
Idaho Big Sky 319 0.204 0.386 262 0
Alabama St. SWAC 320 0.203 0.321 327 +3
Navy Patriot 321 0.198 0.246 361 -1
Lafayette Patriot 322 0.197 0.334 316 -1
Northwestern St. Southland 323 0.193 0.355 296 -1
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.192 0.464 169 0
Alabama A&M SWAC 325 0.183 0.308 337 +3
Eastern Mich. MAC 326 0.181 0.361 292 -1
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 327 0.170 0.264 356 0
UTRGV WAC 328 0.169 0.492 148 +1
Southern Ind. OVC 329 0.167 0.348 305 +1
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 330 0.167 0.388 258 -4
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 331 0.164 0.303 340 +1
Cal Poly Big West 332 0.162 0.447 187 -1
NJIT Am. East 333 0.158 0.394 250 0
Dartmouth Ivy 334 0.154 0.481 150 0
New Orleans Southland 335 0.150 0.367 285 0
Central Ark. A-Sun 336 0.148 0.351 302 0
Prairie View SWAC 337 0.146 0.324 323 +5
Morgan St. MEAC 338 0.145 0.336 314 0
UIW Southland 339 0.144 0.315 328 -2
Manhattan MAAC 340 0.143 0.377 271 -1
Tennessee Tech OVC 341 0.142 0.337 313 0
Hampton CAA 342 0.141 0.365 287 -2
Buffalo MAC 343 0.140 0.427 209 0
Florida A&M SWAC 344 0.138 0.392 254 0
Detroit Mercy Horizon 345 0.132 0.434 203 0
N.C. A&T Big South 346 0.129 0.403 239 0
Army West Point Patriot 347 0.128 0.266 355 0
Holy Cross Patriot 348 0.122 0.285 349 0
LIU NEC 349 0.122 0.304 339 0
Loyola Maryland Patriot 350 0.119 0.309 333 0
Pacific WCC 351 0.117 0.495 147 +1
Houston Christian Southland 352 0.111 0.420 224 -1
UMES MEAC 353 0.108 0.324 324 0
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 354 0.103 0.328 319 0
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 355 0.095 0.291 345 0
Lindenwood OVC 356 0.094 0.310 332 0
Siena MAAC 357 0.087 0.371 281 0
Stonehill NEC 358 0.085 0.338 312 0
VMI Southern 359 0.083 0.449 186 0
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.077 0.381 268 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.059 0.321 326 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.044 0.402 243 0