While I was unfortunately not able to post my original March Madness projections to Nothing But Numbers in time for the tournament, my model correctly forecast several upsets that other computer models missed, including 14th seeded Abilene Christian over 3rd seeded Texas and 8th seeded Loyola Chicago over 1st seeded Illinois. Here is a sortable table of what my model projects for the remainder of the tournament:
| Team | Seed | Elite 8% | Final 4% | Champ Game% | Winner% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 1 | 73.8% | 49.9% | 33.2% | 20.5% |
| Houston | 2 | 76.7% | 47.9% | 29.2% | 16.5% |
| Baylor | 1 | 60.2% | 41.1% | 21.6% | 11.3% |
| Loyola (IL) | 8 | 80.6% | 40.0% | 22.1% | 11.2% |
| Michigan | 1 | 60.3% | 34.4% | 16.5% | 8.2% |
| Alabama | 2 | 66.1% | 33.9% | 15.6% | 7.5% |
| Southern California | 6 | 64.0% | 27.8% | 14.9% | 7.1% |
| Arkansas | 3 | 82.5% | 33.0% | 13.2% | 5.2% |
| Villanova | 5 | 39.8% | 23.7% | 10.1% | 4.3% |
| Florida State | 4 | 39.7% | 18.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Creighton | 5 | 26.2% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Oregon | 7 | 36.0% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| UCLA | 11 | 33.9% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Syracuse | 11 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Oregon State | 12 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Oral Roberts | 15 | 17.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
While Gonzaga is the favorite to win, the model still sees the tournament as wide open, with Gonzaga only winning 20% of the time and eight different teams having at least a 5% chance of winning. Compared to other forecasts, the model is noticeably more bullish on Houston, Loyola Chicago, and Southern California.
Expect more upsets in a tournament that has already been filled with them.
