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Our 2018 Senate forecast shows the Democrats having a better night than many other competing forecasts, with Democrats having a roughly 1 in 4 chance of winning the Senate and keeping the Senate at 51-49 Republican on average.

Without getting into the details of the model, the main reason I am slightly more optimistic about the Senate for Democrats than others boils down to two reasons.  First, Democrats have a sizable lead in the generic national popular vote, by roughly 8 to 9 points.  Second, history shows that it’s incredibly difficult to defeat incumbent senators from the opposing party to the President in a midterm election, which bodes well for the numerous Democratic incumbents up for re-election in states that Trump won.  That doesn’t mean that they will all survive, just that they probably have a better chance of winning than other prognosticators are giving them.

Unfortunately, due to a heavy school course-load, I won’t be able to publish the methodology of my model until after election day.  But the full results of the model are still posted below.  Happy election day!

Overall Senate Forecast

Category Democratic Republican
Win Senate Majority? 26.7% 73.3%

State-Level Forecasts

State Dem Win% Rep Win% Dem Vote% Rep Vote% Race Rating
California 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Delaware 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Hawaii 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Massachusetts 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
New Mexico 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
New York 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Rhode Island 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Vermont 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Washington 100.0% 0.0% 65.0% 35.0% Safe D
Minnesota 99.9% 0.1% 62.5% 37.5% Safe D
Maine 99.8% 0.2% 59.8% 40.2% Safe D
Connecticut 99.8% 0.2% 58.5% 41.5% Safe D
Virginia 99.2% 0.8% 56.7% 43.3% Safe D
Michigan 98.5% 1.5% 58.2% 41.8% Safe D
New Jersey 98.4% 1.6% 58.0% 42.0% Safe D
Pennsylvania 97.6% 2.4% 55.5% 44.5% Safe D
Wisconsin 95.1% 4.9% 55.1% 44.9% Safe D
Minnesota Special 95.1% 4.9% 54.7% 45.3% Safe D
West Virginia 93.3% 6.7% 57.0% 43.0% Solid D
Ohio 91.5% 8.5% 54.6% 45.4% Solid D
Montana 84.5% 15.5% 53.2% 46.8% Likely D
Florida 80.0% 20.0% 52.9% 47.1% Likely D
Indiana 70.5% 29.5% 51.8% 48.2% Lean D
Nevada 67.4% 32.6% 51.3% 48.7% Lean D
Missouri 63.0% 37.0% 51.0% 49.0% Tilt D
Arizona 62.2% 37.8% 51.0% 49.0% Tilt D
North Dakota 35.0% 65.0% 48.4% 51.6% Lean R
Tennessee 23.7% 76.3% 47.7% 52.3% Likely R
Texas 23.5% 76.5% 47.7% 52.3% Likely R
Mississippi Special 7.8% 92.2% 44.6% 55.4% Solid R
Nebraska 5.6% 94.4% 44.8% 55.2% Solid R
Mississippi 1.5% 98.5% 43.3% 56.7% Safe R
Utah 0.6% 99.5% 35.6% 64.4% Safe R
Wyoming 0.0% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% Safe R

Additional Senate Predictions

Category Democratic Seats Republican Seats Category Yes No
Average Seats 48.9 51.1 Dems Lose Incumbent? 84.3% 15.7%
Median Seats 49 51 Reps Lose Incumbent? 72.3% 27.7%
Mode Seats 49 51 Dems Pick Up Seats? 42.7% 57.3%
95th Percentile 53 47 Reps Pick Up Seats? 40.9% 59.1%
75th Percentile 51 49 Max Democratic Seats 57 43
25th Percentile 47 53 Min Democratic Seats 38 62
5th Percentile 45 55 Projected Generic Ballot: 54.7% 45.3%

Range of Outcomes

Democratic Seats Probability
55+ 0.4%
54 1.4%
53 4.0%
52 8.2%
51 12.8%
50 16.0%
49 16.3%
48 14.1%
47 10.6%
46 7.4%
45 4.5%
44 2.4%
43 1.1%
42 0.5%
41 0.2%
40- 0.1%