Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 3/3/24.

My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.960 0.735 13 0
UConn Big East 2 0.943 0.648 81 +1
Arizona Pac 12 3 0.939 0.728 18 -1
Purdue Big 10 4 0.936 0.759 6 0
Tennessee SEC 5 0.930 0.727 21 0
Auburn SEC 6 0.923 0.687 54 0
Iowa St. Big 12 7 0.923 0.686 55 0
Duke ACC 8 0.911 0.672 71 +2
Alabama SEC 9 0.911 0.770 4 -1
Creighton Big East 10 0.905 0.715 29 +2
North Carolina ACC 11 0.901 0.727 20 -2
Marquette Big East 12 0.901 0.736 11 -1
BYU Big 12 13 0.900 0.696 49 +2
Baylor Big 12 14 0.899 0.761 5 +2
Illinois Big 10 15 0.893 0.704 40 -2
Kansas Big 12 16 0.888 0.771 2 -2
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 17 0.882 0.577 103 0
Michigan St. Big 10 18 0.880 0.750 9 0
Gonzaga WCC 19 0.880 0.555 112 +3
San Diego St. MWC 20 0.870 0.706 35 -1
Texas Big 12 21 0.860 0.726 22 +8
Villanova Big East 22 0.858 0.729 16 +8
TCU Big 12 23 0.856 0.676 67 -2
Kentucky SEC 24 0.854 0.681 61 -1
Wake Forest ACC 25 0.852 0.671 72 -5
Boise St. MWC 26 0.850 0.678 63 +10
St. John’s (NY) Big East 27 0.849 0.733 14 +10
Clemson ACC 28 0.848 0.713 30 -4
Texas Tech Big 12 29 0.846 0.721 23 -4
New Mexico MWC 30 0.843 0.639 86 -3
Oklahoma Big 12 31 0.841 0.697 48 +2
Dayton A-10 32 0.841 0.641 84 -4
Wisconsin Big 10 33 0.838 0.759 7 -7
Colorado Pac 12 34 0.835 0.676 66 -2
Cincinnati Big 12 35 0.834 0.720 25 +4
Washington St. Pac 12 36 0.828 0.648 82 -1
Mississippi St. SEC 37 0.827 0.699 44 -3
Colorado St. MWC 38 0.827 0.705 38 -7
Nebraska Big 10 39 0.826 0.677 64 +3
Pittsburgh ACC 40 0.825 0.644 83 +6
Fla. Atlantic AAC 41 0.823 0.612 89 -1
Florida SEC 42 0.822 0.684 57 -4
Utah Pac 12 43 0.820 0.731 15 +6
Nevada MWC 44 0.817 0.606 94 0
Utah St. MWC 45 0.814 0.629 87 -4
Iowa Big 10 46 0.809 0.718 26 +2
Indiana St. MVC 47 0.804 0.508 142 0
SMU AAC 48 0.803 0.568 107 -5
UCF Big 12 49 0.799 0.698 46 +2
Ohio St. Big 10 50 0.790 0.701 42 +12
Maryland Big 10 51 0.790 0.685 56 -6
Northwestern Big 10 52 0.788 0.682 59 0
Virginia Tech ACC 53 0.785 0.704 39 0
Xavier Big East 54 0.785 0.746 10 +3
South Carolina SEC 55 0.780 0.617 88 +5
Providence Big East 56 0.775 0.697 47 -6
Drake MVC 57 0.775 0.533 126 -1
Kansas St. Big 12 58 0.774 0.729 17 +1
Grand Canyon WAC 59 0.772 0.467 175 +10
Butler Big East 60 0.768 0.721 24 -6
McNeese Southland 61 0.766 0.364 305 +3
Virginia ACC 62 0.765 0.666 76 -4
Washington Pac 12 63 0.764 0.702 41 -2
Texas A&M SEC 64 0.764 0.705 36 +4
Minnesota Big 10 65 0.763 0.640 85 +2
Seton Hall Big East 66 0.762 0.717 27 -11
Oregon Pac 12 67 0.758 0.677 65 -2
Bradley MVC 68 0.757 0.571 106 +2
James Madison Sunbelt 69 0.754 0.377 289 -3
San Francisco WCC 70 0.748 0.479 162 -7
UC Irvine Big West 71 0.743 0.484 158 +12
Richmond A-10 72 0.742 0.533 124 0
St. Bonaventure A-10 73 0.742 0.563 108 +1
Memphis AAC 74 0.740 0.607 93 +8
Princeton Ivy 75 0.738 0.470 171 -4
NC State ACC 76 0.734 0.656 79 -3
UNLV MWC 77 0.733 0.649 80 -2
VCU A-10 78 0.729 0.597 97 +1
Miami (FL) ACC 79 0.729 0.672 70 +1
App State Sunbelt 80 0.726 0.446 201 +7
North Texas AAC 81 0.723 0.592 99 +3
Louisiana Tech C-USA 82 0.721 0.489 154 -4
Massachusetts A-10 83 0.721 0.523 130 +2
Ole Miss SEC 84 0.719 0.675 68 -7
Florida St. ACC 85 0.715 0.710 32 -9
Yale Ivy 86 0.713 0.505 143 +2
LSU SEC 87 0.712 0.669 75 -1
South Fla. AAC 88 0.710 0.514 141 +4
Rutgers Big 10 89 0.707 0.707 34 +6
Penn St. Big 10 90 0.705 0.689 52 -1
Syracuse ACC 91 0.704 0.715 28 +3
Loyola Chicago A-10 92 0.695 0.559 110 -1
Southern California Pac 12 93 0.692 0.709 33 +7
Samford Southern 94 0.688 0.418 240 -13
Georgia SEC 95 0.679 0.687 53 -2
Vermont Am. East 96 0.675 0.424 229 +5
Oklahoma St. Big 12 97 0.674 0.705 37 -1
Boston College ACC 98 0.673 0.664 77 -8
Duquesne A-10 99 0.669 0.609 91 +7
Indiana Big 10 100 0.669 0.735 12 +13
UCLA Pac 12 101 0.665 0.675 69 -4
Saint Joseph’s A-10 102 0.655 0.517 137 +5
George Mason A-10 103 0.654 0.551 114 -5
Davidson A-10 104 0.653 0.598 96 -2
Akron MAC 105 0.650 0.453 190 -6
Stanford Pac 12 106 0.647 0.681 60 -3
UC San Diego Big West 107 0.640 0.447 200 -3
Santa Clara WCC 108 0.637 0.537 120 +4
Cornell Ivy 109 0.637 0.452 192 +7
Col. of Charleston CAA 110 0.637 0.435 214 +5
California Pac 12 111 0.633 0.699 45 -2
UNI MVC 112 0.631 0.572 105 +6
Charlotte AAC 113 0.627 0.592 100 -3
Western Caro. Southern 114 0.619 0.429 223 +11
Notre Dame ACC 115 0.618 0.683 58 +13
Seattle U WAC 116 0.616 0.474 168 -8
Arizona St. Pac 12 117 0.612 0.728 19 0
Southern Ill. MVC 118 0.611 0.522 131 -7
Arkansas SEC 119 0.610 0.701 43 0
Hofstra CAA 120 0.610 0.464 177 +3
Michigan Big 10 121 0.608 0.775 1 -16
UNCW CAA 122 0.608 0.438 211 -8
Belmont MVC 123 0.601 0.552 113 +13
Drexel CAA 124 0.599 0.425 228 +2
West Virginia Big 12 125 0.592 0.770 3 +4
Troy Sunbelt 126 0.589 0.436 213 +4
Youngstown St. Horizon 127 0.588 0.373 294 -5
Georgia Tech ACC 128 0.587 0.710 31 +5
Tarleton St. WAC 129 0.587 0.498 147 +5
Liberty C-USA 130 0.585 0.475 167 -9
Tulane AAC 131 0.585 0.572 104 -4
High Point Big South 132 0.584 0.382 285 -8
UT Arlington WAC 133 0.580 0.533 125 +15
UAB AAC 134 0.579 0.607 92 -14
Morehead St. OVC 135 0.564 0.339 325 +2
Weber St. Big Sky 136 0.562 0.416 244 +5
Colgate Patriot 137 0.556 0.356 309 +7
Oakland Horizon 138 0.555 0.451 193 -7
Missouri SEC 139 0.553 0.669 74 +4
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 140 0.553 0.368 300 +21
Louisiana Sunbelt 141 0.552 0.462 179 -6
UNC Greensboro Southern 142 0.548 0.441 208 +7
Wichita St. AAC 143 0.544 0.590 102 +14
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 144 0.543 0.448 196 -2
South Dakota St. Summit 145 0.542 0.443 205 +10
Murray St. MVC 146 0.539 0.556 111 -14
Furman Southern 147 0.538 0.457 185 -9
Towson CAA 148 0.537 0.461 181 +2
UMass Lowell Am. East 149 0.534 0.355 310 +3
Toledo MAC 150 0.533 0.461 180 -11
Western Ky. C-USA 151 0.532 0.423 232 -6
Chattanooga Southern 152 0.531 0.416 245 -12
Oregon St. Pac 12 153 0.528 0.692 51 -2
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 154 0.527 0.468 173 -8
Montana Big Sky 155 0.525 0.422 234 -2
UNC Asheville Big South 156 0.518 0.455 186 +3
Wright St. Horizon 157 0.518 0.418 241 -10
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 158 0.517 0.334 328 +4
Ohio MAC 159 0.513 0.397 267 +1
Sam Houston WAC 160 0.508 0.468 174 +5
Missouri St. MVC 161 0.505 0.522 132 +3
LMU (CA) WCC 162 0.497 0.523 129 +9
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 163 0.497 0.370 298 +5
Hawaii Big West 164 0.493 0.447 199 -1
SFA WAC 165 0.492 0.481 161 +1
Utah Valley WAC 166 0.490 0.526 128 -12
Winthrop Big South 167 0.485 0.420 239 +2
Kent St. MAC 168 0.484 0.433 219 -1
Wyoming MWC 169 0.483 0.662 78 +7
Lipscomb A-Sun 170 0.483 0.385 282 +5
Long Beach St. Big West 171 0.481 0.448 197 -13
California Baptist WAC 172 0.476 0.428 225 +12
Fairfield MAAC 173 0.471 0.335 327 +1
Delaware CAA 174 0.469 0.404 257 -18
Illinois St. MVC 175 0.463 0.519 133 -3
Georgetown Big East 176 0.463 0.678 62 +1
Louisville ACC 177 0.462 0.670 73 +2
Fordham A-10 178 0.459 0.539 118 +4
UTEP C-USA 179 0.456 0.482 159 +32
East Carolina AAC 180 0.455 0.527 127 -10
Saint Peter’s MAAC 181 0.453 0.343 319 +14
Longwood Big South 182 0.453 0.360 308 +3
UC Davis Big West 183 0.451 0.422 233 +8
Bryant Am. East 184 0.449 0.432 222 -4
Wofford Southern 185 0.449 0.481 160 +19
Jacksonville St. C-USA 186 0.446 0.434 218 -13
UIC MVC 187 0.441 0.533 123 -1
UC Santa Barbara Big West 188 0.440 0.433 220 -7
Temple AAC 189 0.439 0.535 121 +10
La Salle A-10 190 0.439 0.516 138 -3
Tulsa AAC 191 0.439 0.470 172 -8
Monmouth CAA 192 0.433 0.438 210 -4
Northern Colo. Big Sky 193 0.433 0.389 277 0
Fresno St. MWC 194 0.431 0.601 95 +14
Stony Brook CAA 195 0.431 0.434 217 +21
Northern Ky. Horizon 196 0.430 0.412 247 0
Saint Louis A-10 197 0.429 0.609 90 -5
Little Rock OVC 198 0.427 0.288 354 +29
Lamar University Southland 199 0.426 0.340 324 +10
Gardner-Webb Big South 200 0.425 0.494 149 +3
Merrimack NEC 201 0.425 0.302 348 -3
ETSU Southern 202 0.425 0.458 183 +11
Penn Ivy 203 0.424 0.517 136 -2
Georgia St. Sunbelt 204 0.422 0.457 184 -4
Vanderbilt SEC 205 0.421 0.693 50 +1
Kansas City Summit 206 0.420 0.407 249 +33
Quinnipiac MAAC 207 0.417 0.317 338 +10
Rhode Island A-10 208 0.414 0.592 101 -18
Rice AAC 209 0.413 0.562 109 -31
Iona MAAC 210 0.413 0.390 275 -16
George Washington A-10 211 0.410 0.490 153 -14
Cleveland St. Horizon 212 0.406 0.389 278 -23
Abilene Christian WAC 213 0.406 0.474 169 +19
Marist MAAC 214 0.405 0.295 350 -12
Stetson A-Sun 215 0.403 0.423 230 -5
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 216 0.401 0.414 246 -9
Mercer Southern 217 0.401 0.454 187 +12
Texas St. Sunbelt 218 0.398 0.517 135 +17
Miami (OH) MAC 219 0.397 0.381 286 +22
Brown Ivy 220 0.395 0.454 188 +5
North Dakota Summit 221 0.395 0.366 304 +9
Harvard Ivy 222 0.392 0.479 164 -10
Evansville MVC 223 0.392 0.519 134 -18
UT Martin OVC 224 0.391 0.313 341 -9
Rider MAAC 225 0.391 0.401 260 +11
Columbia Ivy 226 0.390 0.407 250 -12
CSU Bakersfield Big West 227 0.390 0.454 189 +24
Maine Am. East 228 0.386 0.393 274 0
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 229 0.384 0.313 342 +16
Pepperdine WCC 230 0.382 0.546 116 -10
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 231 0.382 0.478 165 +23
Green Bay Horizon 232 0.382 0.403 258 -10
UTSA AAC 233 0.381 0.492 151 +30
UC Riverside Big West 234 0.381 0.487 156 -8
Austin Peay A-Sun 235 0.381 0.406 252 -12
South Alabama Sunbelt 236 0.380 0.441 209 -3
Southern Utah WAC 237 0.380 0.499 145 -19
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 238 0.380 0.451 194 -17
Milwaukee Horizon 239 0.377 0.398 264 +1
FGCU A-Sun 240 0.377 0.420 236 +15
San Jose St. MWC 241 0.373 0.592 98 +8
CSUN Big West 242 0.370 0.388 279 -23
Radford Big South 243 0.368 0.426 227 -19
N.C. Central MEAC 244 0.368 0.294 351 +12
Northeastern CAA 245 0.367 0.435 215 -7
Air Force MWC 246 0.357 0.535 122 -4
Bowling Green MAC 247 0.352 0.363 306 -3
Marshall Sunbelt 248 0.352 0.486 157 0
UAlbany Am. East 249 0.349 0.373 293 +17
North Florida A-Sun 250 0.349 0.394 271 +3
Montana St. Big Sky 251 0.346 0.405 255 +17
Omaha Summit 252 0.343 0.399 262 -5
Idaho St. Big Sky 253 0.343 0.384 283 -7
The Citadel Southern 254 0.341 0.442 207 -4
North Dakota St. Summit 255 0.340 0.443 204 -24
North Ala. A-Sun 256 0.339 0.385 281 +2
New Hampshire Am. East 257 0.337 0.416 243 -23
San Diego WCC 258 0.336 0.515 140 -15
Denver Summit 259 0.335 0.404 256 -22
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 260 0.335 0.372 295 +2
Central Conn. St. NEC 261 0.334 0.257 362 0
Nicholls Southland 262 0.330 0.420 238 +3
Portland St. Big Sky 263 0.330 0.393 273 -6
UMBC Am. East 264 0.328 0.367 301 +9
Ball St. MAC 265 0.325 0.345 318 +5
Norfolk St. MEAC 266 0.322 0.326 333 -2
Western Ill. OVC 267 0.321 0.317 337 +2
Oral Roberts Summit 268 0.321 0.465 176 -8
Southern U. SWAC 269 0.320 0.379 288 -10
Lehigh Patriot 270 0.319 0.326 332 -3
Queens (NC) A-Sun 271 0.319 0.442 206 +3
Niagara MAAC 272 0.316 0.348 315 -20
Presbyterian Big South 273 0.310 0.371 297 -1
American Patriot 274 0.307 0.275 356 +4
Canisius MAAC 275 0.306 0.399 261 +2
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 276 0.304 0.450 195 +11
Central Mich. MAC 277 0.302 0.423 231 -1
FIU C-USA 278 0.302 0.473 170 +3
Texas Southern SWAC 279 0.298 0.343 321 +4
Southeastern La. Southland 280 0.296 0.406 254 -1
Utah Tech WAC 281 0.296 0.498 148 -6
Old Dominion Sunbelt 282 0.294 0.487 155 -11
Binghamton Am. East 283 0.293 0.395 269 +8
USC Upstate Big South 284 0.288 0.444 203 +1
SIUE OVC 285 0.281 0.312 343 -3
Howard MEAC 286 0.279 0.312 344 -2
Bucknell Patriot 287 0.278 0.343 320 +14
ULM Sunbelt 288 0.276 0.476 166 -8
New Mexico St. C-USA 289 0.275 0.548 115 +1
Western Mich. MAC 290 0.271 0.401 259 +5
Middle Tenn. C-USA 291 0.270 0.490 152 -3
Sacred Heart NEC 292 0.269 0.269 358 +12
Valparaiso MVC 293 0.268 0.537 119 +1
Jackson St. SWAC 294 0.264 0.351 312 -1
Portland WCC 295 0.262 0.539 117 +14
Alcorn SWAC 296 0.260 0.396 268 +4
Jacksonville A-Sun 297 0.260 0.399 263 -5
NIU MAC 298 0.259 0.493 150 +15
Robert Morris Horizon 299 0.259 0.394 272 -10
Tennessee St. OVC 300 0.259 0.319 336 -14
Chicago St. Independent 301 0.257 0.421 235 -2
Boston U. Patriot 302 0.256 0.294 352 +1
Grambling SWAC 303 0.255 0.376 290 -5
Campbell CAA 304 0.253 0.367 302 -2
Le Moyne NEC 305 0.251 0.265 360 +5
Delaware St. MEAC 306 0.251 0.311 346 +1
DePaul Big East 307 0.248 0.751 8 -10
South Carolina St. MEAC 308 0.241 0.354 311 0
South Dakota Summit 309 0.232 0.389 276 +5
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 310 0.230 0.459 182 +5
Idaho Big Sky 311 0.230 0.406 251 -15
Elon CAA 312 0.229 0.384 284 -6
Eastern Ill. OVC 313 0.227 0.341 322 +4
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 314 0.226 0.417 242 +2
Bellarmine A-Sun 315 0.226 0.453 191 +4
Lafayette Patriot 316 0.223 0.348 316 -4
Alabama St. SWAC 317 0.223 0.330 331 -6
Northwestern St. Southland 318 0.220 0.398 265 0
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 319 0.220 0.289 353 +4
Wagner NEC 320 0.217 0.257 361 -15
William & Mary CAA 321 0.215 0.371 296 0
Navy Patriot 322 0.207 0.266 359 +4
Sacramento St. Big Sky 323 0.205 0.434 216 +4
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.201 0.479 163 0
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 325 0.199 0.429 224 +4
UTRGV WAC 326 0.189 0.516 139 -6
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 327 0.189 0.273 357 -2
Southern Ind. OVC 328 0.183 0.360 307 -6
UIW Southland 329 0.175 0.333 329 +1
NJIT Am. East 330 0.171 0.412 248 -2
Eastern Mich. MAC 331 0.171 0.369 299 +1
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 332 0.167 0.313 340 +1
Central Ark. A-Sun 333 0.158 0.367 303 +5
Prairie View SWAC 334 0.158 0.331 330 -3
New Orleans Southland 335 0.157 0.375 291 +7
Hampton CAA 336 0.157 0.379 287 +4
Army West Point Patriot 337 0.153 0.285 355 -2
Buffalo MAC 338 0.153 0.447 198 +5
Tennessee Tech OVC 339 0.152 0.351 313 -5
Alabama A&M SWAC 340 0.151 0.311 345 -4
Dartmouth Ivy 341 0.149 0.500 144 -2
N.C. A&T Big South 342 0.149 0.426 226 -5
Cal Poly Big West 343 0.147 0.445 202 +1
Florida A&M SWAC 344 0.146 0.406 253 +3
Morgan St. MEAC 345 0.143 0.374 292 -4
Pacific WCC 346 0.134 0.498 146 +2
Loyola Maryland Patriot 347 0.134 0.326 334 -2
Manhattan MAAC 348 0.132 0.398 266 -2
Detroit Mercy Horizon 349 0.125 0.437 212 +3
LIU NEC 350 0.124 0.316 339 -1
Holy Cross Patriot 351 0.116 0.298 349 0
Houston Christian Southland 352 0.113 0.433 221 -2
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 353 0.109 0.341 323 +1
UMES MEAC 354 0.106 0.339 326 +2
Lindenwood OVC 355 0.100 0.321 335 +3
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 356 0.100 0.304 347 -3
VMI Southern 357 0.096 0.463 178 -2
Stonehill NEC 358 0.091 0.348 314 -1
Siena MAAC 359 0.088 0.395 270 0
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.079 0.387 280 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.070 0.347 317 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.038 0.420 237 0