Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 2/25/24.

My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Houston Big 12 1 0.963 0.722 20 0
Arizona Pac 12 2 0.939 0.731 13 0
UConn Big East 3 0.938 0.643 82 0
Purdue Big 10 4 0.937 0.753 6 0
Tennessee SEC 5 0.927 0.706 32 +2
Auburn SEC 6 0.923 0.664 70 +2
Iowa St. Big 12 7 0.918 0.676 59 -1
Alabama SEC 8 0.912 0.763 4 -3
North Carolina ACC 9 0.907 0.725 17 +1
Duke ACC 10 0.903 0.673 60 +6
Marquette Big East 11 0.900 0.723 19 +3
Creighton Big East 12 0.897 0.705 34 +1
Illinois Big 10 13 0.894 0.697 40 -4
Kansas Big 12 14 0.893 0.752 7 +4
BYU Big 12 15 0.892 0.677 57 -4
Baylor Big 12 16 0.890 0.746 8 -1
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 17 0.885 0.569 105 0
Michigan St. Big 10 18 0.880 0.741 10 -6
San Diego St. MWC 19 0.878 0.716 26 0
Wake Forest ACC 20 0.866 0.666 66 +10
TCU Big 12 21 0.863 0.652 76 +6
Gonzaga WCC 22 0.860 0.529 126 0
Kentucky SEC 23 0.858 0.677 56 +6
Clemson ACC 24 0.855 0.711 28 +9
Texas Tech Big 12 25 0.852 0.717 24 -5
Wisconsin Big 10 26 0.851 0.756 5 -1
New Mexico MWC 27 0.849 0.631 85 -6
Dayton A-10 28 0.847 0.639 84 -2
Texas Big 12 29 0.846 0.719 22 -5
Villanova Big East 30 0.841 0.735 12 -2
Colorado St. MWC 31 0.840 0.708 31 +1
Colorado Pac 12 32 0.839 0.680 52 +6
Oklahoma Big 12 33 0.839 0.664 69 +1
Mississippi St. SEC 34 0.837 0.680 51 +7
Washington St. Pac 12 35 0.834 0.650 78 0
Boise St. MWC 36 0.834 0.683 49 +8
St. John’s (NY) Big East 37 0.832 0.730 14 +2
Florida SEC 38 0.831 0.687 47 -2
Cincinnati Big 12 39 0.830 0.699 38 -16
Fla. Atlantic AAC 40 0.828 0.613 89 -3
Utah St. MWC 41 0.826 0.648 80 -1
Nebraska Big 10 42 0.825 0.666 67 +6
SMU AAC 43 0.824 0.577 103 -12
Nevada MWC 44 0.817 0.598 94 +2
Maryland Big 10 45 0.811 0.679 53 +9
Pittsburgh ACC 46 0.806 0.630 86 -4
Indiana St. MVC 47 0.805 0.516 135 0
Iowa Big 10 48 0.803 0.716 25 +7
Utah Pac 12 49 0.800 0.741 11 -6
Providence Big East 50 0.795 0.679 54 +6
UCF Big 12 51 0.793 0.680 50 -1
Northwestern Big 10 52 0.788 0.671 62 +5
Virginia Tech ACC 53 0.786 0.695 42 +12
Butler Big East 54 0.784 0.728 16 -1
Seton Hall Big East 55 0.783 0.690 44 +5
Drake MVC 56 0.782 0.531 122 -4
Xavier Big East 57 0.780 0.771 2 -8
Virginia ACC 58 0.775 0.650 77 -13
Kansas St. Big 12 59 0.774 0.725 18 +8
South Carolina SEC 60 0.772 0.603 93 +9
Washington Pac 12 61 0.771 0.706 33 0
Ohio St. Big 10 62 0.771 0.698 39 0
San Francisco WCC 63 0.769 0.452 193 +3
McNeese Southland 64 0.768 0.363 308 -6
Oregon Pac 12 65 0.767 0.667 64 -1
James Madison Sunbelt 66 0.764 0.383 293 +2
Minnesota Big 10 67 0.757 0.620 87 -4
Texas A&M SEC 68 0.756 0.705 35 -17
Grand Canyon WAC 69 0.755 0.479 166 -10
Bradley MVC 70 0.755 0.566 107 +2
Princeton Ivy 71 0.749 0.464 179 0
Richmond A-10 72 0.736 0.530 124 +6
NC State ACC 73 0.733 0.639 83 +4
St. Bonaventure A-10 74 0.730 0.556 110 0
UNLV MWC 75 0.728 0.668 63 +19
Florida St. ACC 76 0.725 0.715 27 +7
Ole Miss SEC 77 0.722 0.664 68 -1
Louisiana Tech C-USA 78 0.722 0.491 152 +2
VCU A-10 79 0.719 0.596 96 -4
Miami (FL) ACC 80 0.719 0.661 73 -10
Samford Southern 81 0.719 0.417 240 +1
Memphis AAC 82 0.718 0.615 88 +7
UC Irvine Big West 83 0.718 0.490 153 -2
North Texas AAC 84 0.713 0.595 98 -11
Massachusetts A-10 85 0.708 0.518 133 +5
LSU SEC 86 0.708 0.676 58 -7
App State Sunbelt 87 0.704 0.449 199 +1
Yale Ivy 88 0.701 0.524 130 -3
Penn St. Big 10 89 0.700 0.678 55 +4
Boston College ACC 90 0.700 0.650 79 -4
Loyola Chicago A-10 91 0.698 0.539 117 +8
South Fla. AAC 92 0.691 0.510 139 +8
Georgia SEC 93 0.691 0.684 48 -1
Syracuse ACC 94 0.688 0.721 21 +2
Rutgers Big 10 95 0.684 0.708 29 -11
Oklahoma St. Big 12 96 0.682 0.691 43 +8
UCLA Pac 12 97 0.680 0.663 71 -6
George Mason A-10 98 0.675 0.553 111 -3
Akron MAC 99 0.673 0.457 187 -1
Southern California Pac 12 100 0.669 0.703 37 +3
Vermont Am. East 101 0.666 0.418 239 +11
Davidson A-10 102 0.661 0.580 102 +7
Stanford Pac 12 103 0.661 0.672 61 -16
UC San Diego Big West 104 0.659 0.456 188 +3
Michigan Big 10 105 0.652 0.776 1 0
Duquesne A-10 106 0.651 0.610 91 -5
Saint Joseph’s A-10 107 0.651 0.517 134 -1
Seattle U WAC 108 0.650 0.472 171 +8
California Pac 12 109 0.650 0.687 46 -1
Charlotte AAC 110 0.649 0.588 99 -13
Southern Ill. MVC 111 0.649 0.514 137 +3
Santa Clara WCC 112 0.643 0.538 119 -2
Indiana Big 10 113 0.641 0.729 15 -11
UNCW CAA 114 0.639 0.434 221 +1
Col. of Charleston CAA 115 0.627 0.438 214 +9
Cornell Ivy 116 0.624 0.439 213 -5
Arizona St. Pac 12 117 0.619 0.718 23 +6
UNI MVC 118 0.618 0.586 100 0
Arkansas SEC 119 0.616 0.703 36 +11
UAB AAC 120 0.611 0.608 92 -7
Liberty C-USA 121 0.603 0.485 158 -4
Youngstown St. Horizon 122 0.600 0.389 280 +4
Hofstra CAA 123 0.597 0.450 197 +12
High Point Big South 124 0.592 0.373 299 +4
Western Caro. Southern 125 0.591 0.420 237 +9
Drexel CAA 126 0.590 0.426 232 -4
Tulane AAC 127 0.584 0.561 109 -8
Notre Dame ACC 128 0.581 0.667 65 +21
West Virginia Big 12 129 0.581 0.764 3 +14
Troy Sunbelt 130 0.578 0.435 220 -3
Oakland Horizon 131 0.578 0.468 176 -10
Murray St. MVC 132 0.574 0.550 112 -1
Georgia Tech ACC 133 0.571 0.708 30 +3
Tarleton St. WAC 134 0.571 0.508 141 +8
Louisiana Sunbelt 135 0.571 0.467 177 -15
Belmont MVC 136 0.570 0.564 108 +1
Morehead St. OVC 137 0.568 0.371 301 -8
Furman Southern 138 0.561 0.454 191 +7
Toledo MAC 139 0.560 0.483 161 -1
Chattanooga Southern 140 0.556 0.410 254 -1
Weber St. Big Sky 141 0.554 0.426 233 -16
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 142 0.552 0.453 192 -9
Missouri SEC 143 0.550 0.660 74 -2
Colgate Patriot 144 0.545 0.366 304 -12
Western Ky. C-USA 145 0.545 0.413 249 -5
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 146 0.540 0.470 175 +10
Wright St. Horizon 147 0.529 0.416 244 +16
UT Arlington WAC 148 0.529 0.532 121 -4
UNC Greensboro Southern 149 0.525 0.461 182 -2
Towson CAA 150 0.524 0.472 173 +4
Oregon St. Pac 12 151 0.521 0.688 45 +16
UMass Lowell Am. East 152 0.515 0.337 328 +1
Montana Big Sky 153 0.511 0.427 231 -1
Utah Valley WAC 154 0.510 0.524 131 +7
South Dakota St. Summit 155 0.510 0.447 201 +13
Delaware CAA 156 0.510 0.395 271 -10
Wichita St. AAC 157 0.509 0.598 95 +2
Long Beach St. Big West 158 0.508 0.438 216 +2
UNC Asheville Big South 159 0.507 0.458 185 -2
Ohio MAC 160 0.505 0.391 277 +14
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 161 0.504 0.369 303 -10
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 162 0.504 0.332 332 +7
Hawaii Big West 163 0.504 0.450 196 +1
Missouri St. MVC 164 0.498 0.528 127 -16
Sam Houston WAC 165 0.498 0.475 169 +17
SFA WAC 166 0.497 0.467 178 -11
Kent St. MAC 167 0.494 0.451 195 -5
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 168 0.494 0.389 287 +5
Winthrop Big South 169 0.486 0.411 253 -19
East Carolina AAC 170 0.485 0.508 140 -12
LMU (CA) WCC 171 0.481 0.538 118 +4
Illinois St. MVC 172 0.479 0.536 120 +12
Jacksonville St. C-USA 173 0.477 0.438 215 -3
Fairfield MAAC 174 0.473 0.333 331 +2
Lipscomb A-Sun 175 0.472 0.392 274 +3
Wyoming MWC 176 0.469 0.647 81 -11
Georgetown Big East 177 0.467 0.662 72 +2
Rice AAC 178 0.467 0.569 106 +37
Louisville ACC 179 0.463 0.654 75 -13
Bryant Am. East 180 0.461 0.437 218 -8
UC Santa Barbara Big West 181 0.458 0.446 205 -4
Fordham A-10 182 0.456 0.530 125 +7
Tulsa AAC 183 0.449 0.476 168 0
California Baptist WAC 184 0.447 0.438 217 -13
Longwood Big South 185 0.447 0.346 321 +1
UIC MVC 186 0.444 0.528 128 +9
La Salle A-10 187 0.438 0.513 138 +41
Monmouth CAA 188 0.437 0.456 189 -3
Cleveland St. Horizon 189 0.436 0.406 259 +4
Rhode Island A-10 190 0.433 0.595 97 -9
UC Davis Big West 191 0.433 0.417 243 -11
Saint Louis A-10 192 0.431 0.612 90 +8
Northern Colo. Big Sky 193 0.428 0.389 282 -3
Iona MAAC 194 0.426 0.387 290 -2
Saint Peter’s MAAC 195 0.426 0.354 314 +17
Northern Ky. Horizon 196 0.422 0.417 241 -5
George Washington A-10 197 0.421 0.485 159 +14
Merrimack NEC 198 0.416 0.311 347 0
Temple AAC 199 0.416 0.541 115 +17
Georgia St. Sunbelt 200 0.416 0.440 211 -12
Penn Ivy 201 0.414 0.514 136 +12
Marist MAAC 202 0.414 0.282 355 +4
Gardner-Webb Big South 203 0.413 0.492 150 -6
Wofford Southern 204 0.413 0.492 149 -3
Evansville MVC 205 0.413 0.508 142 -9
Vanderbilt SEC 206 0.413 0.696 41 +3
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 207 0.412 0.412 252 -4
Fresno St. MWC 208 0.411 0.584 101 -14
Lamar University Southland 209 0.410 0.326 337 -4
Stetson A-Sun 210 0.410 0.433 223 -11
UTEP C-USA 211 0.408 0.481 165 -9
Harvard Ivy 212 0.402 0.473 170 -2
ETSU Southern 213 0.401 0.463 180 +1
Columbia Ivy 214 0.399 0.390 279 -6
UT Martin OVC 215 0.398 0.325 338 +12
Stony Brook CAA 216 0.397 0.428 229 +8
Quinnipiac MAAC 217 0.396 0.327 335 -10
Southern Utah WAC 218 0.395 0.495 148 +5
CSUN Big West 219 0.394 0.363 307 0
Pepperdine WCC 220 0.392 0.527 129 +5
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 221 0.389 0.450 198 -4
Green Bay Horizon 222 0.388 0.402 260 -35
Austin Peay A-Sun 223 0.388 0.413 248 -2
Radford Big South 224 0.386 0.433 222 +31
Brown Ivy 225 0.383 0.472 174 +26
UC Riverside Big West 226 0.382 0.484 160 -8
Little Rock OVC 227 0.381 0.296 351 +9
Maine Am. East 228 0.381 0.398 265 +1
Mercer Southern 229 0.380 0.447 203 +25
North Dakota Summit 230 0.379 0.363 306 -4
North Dakota St. Summit 231 0.378 0.442 209 +13
Abilene Christian WAC 232 0.378 0.482 164 +21
South Alabama Sunbelt 233 0.377 0.452 194 +13
New Hampshire Am. East 234 0.375 0.422 236 -30
Texas St. Sunbelt 235 0.372 0.520 132 +8
Rider MAAC 236 0.372 0.409 256 +9
Denver Summit 237 0.371 0.400 264 -17
Northeastern CAA 238 0.370 0.429 228 -8
Kansas City Summit 239 0.370 0.410 255 -1
Milwaukee Horizon 240 0.369 0.420 238 +2
Miami (OH) MAC 241 0.369 0.391 276 -1
Air Force MWC 242 0.369 0.505 143 -8
San Diego WCC 243 0.365 0.531 123 -8
Bowling Green MAC 244 0.365 0.358 313 +12
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 245 0.364 0.314 346 -6
Idaho St. Big Sky 246 0.364 0.389 281 +14
Omaha Summit 247 0.362 0.392 275 -14
Marshall Sunbelt 248 0.362 0.496 147 -16
San Jose St. MWC 249 0.360 0.572 104 -27
The Citadel Southern 250 0.359 0.430 226 +12
CSU Bakersfield Big West 251 0.355 0.458 186 +12
Niagara MAAC 252 0.354 0.341 326 -11
North Florida A-Sun 253 0.352 0.393 272 -16
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 254 0.352 0.477 167 -4
FGCU A-Sun 255 0.345 0.427 230 -8
N.C. Central MEAC 256 0.344 0.317 342 +12
Portland St. Big Sky 257 0.344 0.398 267 -8
North Ala. A-Sun 258 0.341 0.398 266 -6
Southern U. SWAC 259 0.341 0.389 285 -28
Oral Roberts Summit 260 0.340 0.463 181 -3
Central Conn. St. NEC 261 0.339 0.275 359 -3
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 262 0.339 0.372 300 +3
UTSA AAC 263 0.339 0.483 162 +6
Norfolk St. MEAC 264 0.335 0.330 334 -5
Nicholls Southland 265 0.332 0.416 245 +5
UAlbany Am. East 266 0.328 0.370 302 0
Lehigh Patriot 267 0.326 0.322 340 +17
Montana St. Big Sky 268 0.324 0.413 250 -7
Western Ill. OVC 269 0.320 0.326 336 -21
Ball St. MAC 270 0.318 0.348 319 -3
Old Dominion Sunbelt 271 0.315 0.487 156 0
Presbyterian Big South 272 0.313 0.385 292 +17
UMBC Am. East 273 0.311 0.375 297 +10
Queens (NC) A-Sun 274 0.311 0.445 207 +5
Utah Tech WAC 275 0.310 0.500 145 -3
Central Mich. MAC 276 0.308 0.422 235 -12
Canisius MAAC 277 0.307 0.400 263 0
American Patriot 278 0.299 0.281 356 -4
Southeastern La. Southland 279 0.298 0.402 262 -4
ULM Sunbelt 280 0.297 0.486 157 +6
FIU C-USA 281 0.296 0.472 172 +4
SIUE OVC 282 0.293 0.316 343 -4
Texas Southern SWAC 283 0.287 0.360 310 +9
Howard MEAC 284 0.287 0.334 330 -11
USC Upstate Big South 285 0.287 0.447 204 -5
Tennessee St. OVC 286 0.279 0.314 345 +1
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 287 0.277 0.459 184 +10
Middle Tenn. C-USA 288 0.275 0.487 155 +5
Robert Morris Horizon 289 0.275 0.392 273 -8
New Mexico St. C-USA 290 0.275 0.549 113 -14
Binghamton Am. East 291 0.274 0.397 269 -1
Jacksonville A-Sun 292 0.272 0.396 270 +7
Jackson St. SWAC 293 0.269 0.352 316 -11
Valparaiso MVC 294 0.267 0.543 114 -6
Western Mich. MAC 295 0.265 0.413 251 +16
Idaho Big Sky 296 0.264 0.407 258 0
DePaul Big East 297 0.260 0.746 9 +1
Grambling SWAC 298 0.258 0.391 278 +14
Chicago St. Independent 299 0.258 0.423 234 +1
Alcorn SWAC 300 0.254 0.408 257 +4
Bucknell Patriot 301 0.254 0.358 312 -6
Campbell CAA 302 0.253 0.362 309 -8
Boston U. Patriot 303 0.247 0.299 350 +5
Sacred Heart NEC 304 0.244 0.276 358 -1
Wagner NEC 305 0.240 0.263 362 +4
Elon CAA 306 0.239 0.389 286 -1
Delaware St. MEAC 307 0.239 0.310 349 +7
South Carolina St. MEAC 308 0.235 0.379 296 +10
Portland WCC 309 0.235 0.539 116 -3
Le Moyne NEC 310 0.231 0.279 357 -19
Alabama St. SWAC 311 0.230 0.343 324 -9
Lafayette Patriot 312 0.230 0.354 315 -5
NIU MAC 313 0.230 0.483 163 -12
South Dakota Summit 314 0.228 0.389 283 -4
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 315 0.226 0.440 212 -2
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 316 0.226 0.417 242 -1
Eastern Ill. OVC 317 0.220 0.345 323 -1
Northwestern St. Southland 318 0.220 0.397 268 +3
Bellarmine A-Sun 319 0.218 0.455 190 +1
UTRGV WAC 320 0.215 0.504 144 -3
William & Mary CAA 321 0.211 0.388 289 -2
Southern Ind. OVC 322 0.207 0.389 284 +7
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 323 0.204 0.290 352 -1
Charleston So. Big South 324 0.197 0.491 151 +1
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 325 0.196 0.272 360 +3
Navy Patriot 326 0.194 0.268 361 +1
Sacramento St. Big Sky 327 0.191 0.436 219 +5
NJIT Am. East 328 0.187 0.414 247 +2
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 329 0.186 0.448 200 -3
UIW Southland 330 0.182 0.341 327 +1
Prairie View SWAC 331 0.179 0.359 311 -7
Eastern Mich. MAC 332 0.178 0.374 298 +2
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 333 0.178 0.337 329 0
Tennessee Tech OVC 334 0.171 0.350 317 +1
Army West Point Patriot 335 0.164 0.285 354 -12
Alabama A&M SWAC 336 0.160 0.324 339 +4
N.C. A&T Big South 337 0.156 0.431 224 -1
Central Ark. A-Sun 338 0.156 0.365 305 +3
Dartmouth Ivy 339 0.155 0.490 154 -2
Hampton CAA 340 0.150 0.385 291 +7
Morgan St. MEAC 341 0.148 0.381 295 -3
New Orleans Southland 342 0.147 0.383 294 0
Buffalo MAC 343 0.147 0.445 206 +1
Cal Poly Big West 344 0.146 0.447 202 -5
Loyola Maryland Patriot 345 0.145 0.330 333 0
Manhattan MAAC 346 0.143 0.416 246 0
Florida A&M SWAC 347 0.134 0.429 227 +1
Pacific WCC 348 0.131 0.500 146 -5
LIU NEC 349 0.124 0.315 344 +1
Houston Christian Southland 350 0.116 0.441 210 -1
Holy Cross Patriot 351 0.116 0.290 353 +4
Detroit Mercy Horizon 352 0.114 0.431 225 0
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 353 0.108 0.310 348 +1
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 354 0.104 0.342 325 -1
VMI Southern 355 0.104 0.460 183 +1
UMES MEAC 356 0.103 0.346 322 -5
Stonehill NEC 357 0.099 0.350 318 0
Lindenwood OVC 358 0.093 0.319 341 0
Siena MAAC 359 0.086 0.402 261 0
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.072 0.388 288 0
Coppin St. MEAC 361 0.072 0.347 320 0
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.034 0.445 208 0