Data includes all division 1 games through Sunday, 12/10/23.

My model estimates team strength by using Pythagorean expectation, adjusting for strength of schedule using the log5 method. The score, location, opponent, and date of the games are all incorporated into the model.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Schedule Rank Change from Last Week
Arizona Pac 12 1 0.972 0.608 58 0
Houston Big 12 2 0.968 0.499 165 0
BYU Big 12 3 0.960 0.490 178 0
Purdue Big 10 4 0.945 0.766 3 0
Iowa St. Big 12 5 0.943 0.490 180 +3
Creighton Big East 6 0.943 0.538 108 -1
Marquette Big East 7 0.922 0.710 13 -1
Baylor Big 12 8 0.917 0.530 118 +2
Tennessee SEC 9 0.914 0.768 2 +3
Illinois Big 10 10 0.902 0.624 47 +1
UConn Big East 11 0.901 0.380 301 +2
Virginia ACC 12 0.898 0.571 75 +5
Fla. Atlantic AAC 13 0.890 0.657 26 -6
Alabama SEC 14 0.886 0.675 21 +4
Colorado St. MWC 15 0.882 0.683 19 -6
Wisconsin Big 10 16 0.879 0.765 4 +7
Auburn SEC 17 0.876 0.552 90 +16
Oklahoma Big 12 18 0.873 0.392 291 +13
Mississippi St. SEC 19 0.872 0.575 71 +16
New Mexico MWC 20 0.871 0.494 170 +2
Indiana St. MVC 21 0.868 0.494 171 +18
Texas A&M SEC 22 0.867 0.730 8 -8
Cincinnati Big 12 23 0.865 0.459 214 -8
Duke ACC 24 0.862 0.552 91 +5
Kansas Big 12 25 0.860 0.619 51 -9
Clemson ACC 26 0.860 0.645 38 +1
Gonzaga WCC 27 0.858 0.632 44 -1
Utah Pac 12 28 0.857 0.717 10 -4
Washington St. Pac 12 29 0.852 0.441 236 +1
Colorado Pac 12 30 0.850 0.519 132 +20
North Carolina ACC 31 0.841 0.651 33 -6
San Diego St. MWC 32 0.837 0.689 17 0
Ohio St. Big 10 33 0.835 0.560 85 -13
Florida SEC 34 0.833 0.646 35 +11
Utah St. MWC 35 0.831 0.536 112 +7
Princeton Ivy 36 0.830 0.548 100 -15
Washington Pac 12 37 0.816 0.661 25 0
Pittsburgh ACC 38 0.815 0.465 209 +6
San Francisco WCC 39 0.803 0.515 135 +7
Memphis AAC 40 0.802 0.652 30 +30
Michigan St. Big 10 41 0.799 0.656 27 -22
Kentucky SEC 42 0.797 0.437 241 +5
Villanova Big East 43 0.795 0.589 68 +8
McNeese Southland 44 0.794 0.547 101 -3
Louisiana Tech C-USA 45 0.793 0.651 32 -2
James Madison Sunbelt 46 0.786 0.483 184 +13
Dayton A-10 47 0.782 0.623 49 +7
Xavier Big East 48 0.781 0.713 12 -10
SMU AAC 49 0.780 0.552 92 0
Grand Canyon WAC 50 0.778 0.529 120 +27
Iowa Big 10 51 0.776 0.693 16 -15
Butler Big East 52 0.775 0.481 188 -24
TCU Big 12 53 0.771 0.272 355 -1
South Carolina SEC 54 0.771 0.509 144 +2
Northwestern Big 10 55 0.768 0.568 80 0
UC Irvine Big West 56 0.766 0.594 66 +5
Texas Big 12 57 0.763 0.462 212 0
Michigan Big 10 58 0.759 0.648 34 +7
Drake MVC 59 0.754 0.521 129 +8
Texas Tech Big 12 60 0.751 0.512 138 +2
Providence Big East 61 0.750 0.495 169 -3
Rutgers Big 10 62 0.748 0.591 67 -22
St. John’s (NY) Big East 63 0.740 0.528 122 +5
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 64 0.739 0.756 6 +16
Liberty C-USA 65 0.736 0.482 185 -17
Miami (FL) ACC 66 0.733 0.509 145 +12
Oregon Pac 12 67 0.731 0.521 130 +17
Southern Ill. MVC 68 0.730 0.478 197 +3
UIC MVC 69 0.726 0.525 124 -16
Nevada MWC 70 0.726 0.419 267 -36
Virginia Tech ACC 71 0.726 0.558 87 +8
Southern California Pac 12 72 0.721 0.622 50 -12
Kansas St. Big 12 73 0.719 0.548 99 +28
App State Sunbelt 74 0.716 0.491 176 -10
VCU A-10 75 0.715 0.646 36 +8
NC State ACC 76 0.715 0.448 227 +6
Nebraska Big 10 77 0.712 0.486 183 +18
UCF Big 12 78 0.711 0.467 205 +32
Wake Forest ACC 79 0.711 0.481 187 +37
Saint Joseph’s A-10 80 0.707 0.401 290 -5
Duquesne A-10 81 0.705 0.508 150 +13
Hofstra CAA 82 0.701 0.506 153 -16
George Mason A-10 83 0.696 0.513 136 +3
Syracuse ACC 84 0.692 0.683 18 +23
Minnesota Big 10 85 0.690 0.430 253 +29
Richmond A-10 86 0.682 0.447 230 -12
Arkansas SEC 87 0.681 0.624 48 0
Toledo MAC 88 0.681 0.641 41 +11
UCLA Pac 12 89 0.679 0.465 208 -20
Boston College ACC 90 0.678 0.491 175 +2
Oklahoma St. Big 12 91 0.675 0.520 131 +45
St. Bonaventure A-10 92 0.673 0.346 318 +46
Massachusetts A-10 93 0.670 0.425 260 -4
Boise St. MWC 94 0.665 0.758 5 +4
Weber St. Big Sky 95 0.655 0.501 161 -32
Arizona St. Pac 12 96 0.654 0.664 23 +1
Delaware CAA 97 0.654 0.478 195 +16
Florida St. ACC 98 0.651 0.597 65 -25
Charlotte AAC 99 0.650 0.607 60 +6
Seton Hall Big East 100 0.648 0.534 115 -19
Missouri SEC 101 0.647 0.492 173 +18
Akron MAC 102 0.647 0.541 103 +33
North Texas AAC 103 0.646 0.405 283 -12
Seattle U WAC 104 0.643 0.452 218 +13
UMass Lowell Am. East 105 0.636 0.401 288 -17
Oakland Horizon 106 0.635 0.580 70 -2
Ole Miss SEC 107 0.633 0.480 189 +22
Wichita St. AAC 108 0.627 0.509 147 -5
Kent St. MAC 109 0.623 0.479 193 +17
Cornell Ivy 110 0.622 0.434 247 +2
Davidson A-10 111 0.618 0.511 139 +4
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 112 0.617 0.339 323 -36
Portland St. Big Sky 113 0.615 0.487 182 -7
Tulane AAC 114 0.613 0.452 216 -42
Penn St. Big 10 115 0.612 0.522 128 +5
Bradley MVC 116 0.611 0.575 72 -20
SFA WAC 117 0.609 0.532 117 -15
Longwood Big South 118 0.607 0.263 357 +14
Missouri St. MVC 119 0.603 0.444 234 -10
Youngstown St. Horizon 120 0.602 0.503 158 +22
George Washington A-10 121 0.599 0.407 279 -28
Samford Southern 122 0.599 0.477 198 +6
Colgate Patriot 123 0.599 0.600 64 -1
California Baptist WAC 124 0.591 0.415 271 -24
Georgia SEC 125 0.590 0.572 74 +20
Wright St. Horizon 126 0.587 0.554 89 -3
High Point Big South 127 0.587 0.355 314 +29
UNC Greensboro Southern 128 0.583 0.408 277 -38
Drexel CAA 129 0.583 0.460 213 -2
Hawaii Big West 130 0.581 0.326 335 +7
Long Beach St. Big West 131 0.578 0.507 152 +20
UNCW CAA 132 0.573 0.469 203 -1
South Dakota St. Summit 133 0.569 0.601 63 +38
NIU MAC 134 0.569 0.652 29 -49
Maryland Big 10 135 0.561 0.426 258 +20
Loyola Chicago A-10 136 0.557 0.574 73 -18
Col. of Charleston CAA 137 0.557 0.565 82 +7
UNI MVC 138 0.555 0.644 39 +26
LMU (CA) WCC 139 0.554 0.437 240 -6
Indiana Big 10 140 0.552 0.563 84 +10
Vermont Am. East 141 0.545 0.497 168 -16
Western Caro. Southern 142 0.542 0.435 242 -34
South Fla. AAC 143 0.541 0.466 206 +52
Evansville MVC 144 0.541 0.424 261 -5
Canisius MAAC 145 0.538 0.501 162 +18
Yale Ivy 146 0.535 0.523 127 -35
Georgia Tech ACC 147 0.535 0.569 79 -26
Harvard Ivy 148 0.532 0.450 222 -24
UT Arlington WAC 149 0.532 0.663 24 +5
Louisiana Sunbelt 150 0.531 0.557 88 +35
Oral Roberts Summit 151 0.529 0.611 54 +2
Stanford Pac 12 152 0.526 0.480 190 +7
Lipscomb A-Sun 153 0.522 0.433 249 +13
Tulsa AAC 154 0.518 0.350 315 -5
Marist MAAC 155 0.507 0.250 360 +12
Furman Southern 156 0.505 0.480 191 -9
Denver Summit 157 0.504 0.402 287 +50
Belmont MVC 158 0.503 0.490 179 +4
LSU SEC 159 0.503 0.452 217 -18
West Virginia Big 12 160 0.501 0.651 31 -3
Winthrop Big South 161 0.500 0.338 324 +28
Utah Valley WAC 162 0.497 0.528 121 +64
San Jose St. MWC 163 0.497 0.418 268 -23
Santa Clara WCC 164 0.494 0.426 259 -3
Air Force MWC 165 0.486 0.317 341 -35
Wofford Southern 166 0.484 0.518 133 +51
Ohio MAC 167 0.480 0.420 266 -33
Southern Utah WAC 168 0.480 0.604 61 +51
Tarleton St. WAC 169 0.473 0.445 232 +6
Temple AAC 170 0.472 0.416 270 +7
Monmouth CAA 171 0.471 0.512 137 +2
Merrimack NEC 172 0.470 0.535 114 -4
Sam Houston WAC 173 0.469 0.423 263 +23
Maine Am. East 174 0.466 0.321 338 +23
Radford Big South 175 0.464 0.439 238 +4
UC San Diego Big West 176 0.463 0.549 95 +15
Montana Big Sky 177 0.462 0.667 22 -7
New Hampshire Am. East 178 0.462 0.472 200 -32
Morehead St. OVC 179 0.459 0.540 106 +33
Western Ky. C-USA 180 0.458 0.374 306 +29
Howard MEAC 181 0.454 0.523 126 -12
Notre Dame ACC 182 0.451 0.569 78 +49
Wyoming MWC 183 0.449 0.482 186 +28
Utah Tech WAC 184 0.443 0.499 164 +32
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 185 0.441 0.331 332 -13
Nicholls Southland 186 0.441 0.643 40 +16
Pepperdine WCC 187 0.440 0.506 154 -13
Prairie View SWAC 188 0.440 0.636 43 -45
UNLV MWC 189 0.439 0.533 116 -7
Iona MAAC 190 0.439 0.435 244 -3
Bowling Green MAC 191 0.439 0.385 297 -1
Troy Sunbelt 192 0.438 0.405 282 +38
Norfolk St. MEAC 193 0.436 0.403 284 +6
Penn Ivy 194 0.434 0.451 221 -10
Towson CAA 195 0.432 0.508 148 +84
Northern Ky. Horizon 196 0.430 0.402 285 -15
Georgia St. Sunbelt 197 0.430 0.406 280 -49
California Pac 12 198 0.429 0.446 231 -6
Cleveland St. Horizon 199 0.428 0.423 264 +5
North Dakota St. Summit 200 0.426 0.540 105 +15
The Citadel Southern 201 0.425 0.306 346 -1
Fordham A-10 202 0.424 0.371 310 -37
Jacksonville St. C-USA 203 0.422 0.383 298 +10
UC Santa Barbara Big West 204 0.422 0.434 248 -10
Southern U. SWAC 205 0.421 0.698 15 +27
Gardner-Webb Big South 206 0.418 0.613 52 -54
Columbia Ivy 207 0.418 0.347 317 -29
Saint Peter’s MAAC 208 0.416 0.439 237 -2
Northeastern CAA 209 0.414 0.428 255 -29
Georgetown Big East 210 0.411 0.391 292 -24
Oregon St. Pac 12 211 0.411 0.602 62 -3
UT Martin OVC 212 0.407 0.479 194 -7
Texas St. Sunbelt 213 0.406 0.564 83 -3
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 214 0.405 0.729 9 +20
Illinois St. MVC 215 0.400 0.471 201 -27
San Diego WCC 216 0.398 0.434 246 +8
Abilene Christian WAC 217 0.394 0.539 107 -34
Bryant Am. East 218 0.394 0.421 265 -58
DePaul Big East 219 0.392 0.683 20 -16
Rhode Island A-10 220 0.390 0.504 157 -44
North Ala. A-Sun 221 0.383 0.464 211 -28
Fresno St. MWC 222 0.383 0.442 235 +60
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 223 0.382 0.505 155 +18
Saint Louis A-10 224 0.375 0.541 104 +43
Murray St. MVC 225 0.372 0.449 224 -27
La Salle A-10 226 0.369 0.327 334 -4
Little Rock OVC 227 0.367 0.435 245 -69
Chattanooga Southern 228 0.367 0.338 325 +14
ULM Sunbelt 229 0.359 0.645 37 +4
Marshall Sunbelt 230 0.358 0.550 94 +23
UAB AAC 231 0.355 0.518 134 -30
Idaho Big Sky 232 0.349 0.427 257 +63
UAlbany Am. East 233 0.348 0.302 347 +12
Brown Ivy 234 0.345 0.492 172 +4
South Alabama Sunbelt 235 0.345 0.432 250 +65
Tennessee St. OVC 236 0.345 0.320 339 0
Rice AAC 237 0.345 0.714 11 +6
Portland WCC 238 0.344 0.449 223 -9
ETSU Southern 239 0.344 0.430 252 -16
Montana St. Big Sky 240 0.342 0.507 151 -26
Bellarmine A-Sun 241 0.342 0.497 167 +8
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 242 0.342 0.332 331 -7
UNC Asheville Big South 243 0.335 0.529 119 +9
Old Dominion Sunbelt 244 0.335 0.551 93 -24
Kansas City Summit 245 0.333 0.548 97 +12
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 246 0.332 0.478 196 +13
Lamar University Southland 247 0.332 0.333 330 +7
Idaho St. Big Sky 248 0.332 0.451 220 -9
Boston U. Patriot 249 0.331 0.412 274 -24
South Dakota Summit 250 0.331 0.323 337 -22
CSUN Big West 251 0.330 0.169 362 -11
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 252 0.329 0.244 361 +31
Texas Southern SWAC 253 0.328 0.839 1 -2
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 254 0.325 0.508 149 +31
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 255 0.324 0.381 299 +20
Alabama St. SWAC 256 0.320 0.565 81 +2
Jackson St. SWAC 257 0.318 0.630 45 +6
Queens (NC) A-Sun 258 0.318 0.480 192 +14
Stetson A-Sun 259 0.318 0.509 143 -15
Louisville ACC 260 0.318 0.355 313 -4
Ball St. MAC 261 0.317 0.296 350 -6
East Carolina AAC 262 0.315 0.350 316 -12
Fairfield MAAC 263 0.314 0.412 275 +38
Miami (OH) MAC 264 0.313 0.430 251 -2
Middle Tenn. C-USA 265 0.306 0.509 146 -17
Navy Patriot 266 0.305 0.291 353 +27
UTEP C-USA 267 0.305 0.451 219 -30
FIU C-USA 268 0.304 0.413 273 -2
SIUE OVC 269 0.304 0.424 262 +7
Stony Brook CAA 270 0.297 0.402 286 +27
Robert Morris Horizon 271 0.296 0.510 141 +15
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 272 0.293 0.466 207 +39
Presbyterian Big South 273 0.290 0.262 358 -26
Binghamton Am. East 274 0.289 0.337 327 -6
Lehigh Patriot 275 0.289 0.498 166 -14
Vanderbilt SEC 276 0.285 0.448 226 -7
Green Bay Horizon 277 0.284 0.418 269 -56
UC Riverside Big West 278 0.281 0.571 76 -60
UC Davis Big West 279 0.281 0.406 281 -19
Delaware St. MEAC 280 0.277 0.372 309 +19
N.C. Central MEAC 281 0.276 0.505 156 -4
Bucknell Patriot 282 0.275 0.525 125 -9
Elon CAA 283 0.273 0.323 336 +5
Omaha Summit 284 0.271 0.468 204 -57
Quinnipiac MAAC 285 0.260 0.270 356 +7
FGCU A-Sun 286 0.260 0.560 86 -12
Northern Colo. Big Sky 287 0.260 0.401 289 -9
Western Mich. MAC 288 0.259 0.491 174 -42
Central Conn. St. NEC 289 0.256 0.319 340 +5
UIW Southland 290 0.256 0.374 308 +6
American Patriot 291 0.251 0.298 349 +22
William & Mary CAA 292 0.249 0.361 312 -12
Western Ill. OVC 293 0.248 0.536 111 +21
New Orleans Southland 294 0.247 0.435 243 +31
UTSA AAC 295 0.242 0.336 329 +9
Valparaiso MVC 296 0.241 0.449 225 -9
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 297 0.234 0.469 202 -27
USC Upstate Big South 298 0.233 0.389 296 -8
Mercer Southern 299 0.229 0.438 239 -28
Cal Poly Big West 300 0.228 0.502 159 -11
CSU Bakersfield Big West 301 0.228 0.510 140 +6
Alcorn SWAC 302 0.225 0.656 28 -21
Austin Peay A-Sun 303 0.224 0.444 233 +3
North Florida A-Sun 304 0.221 0.309 343 -6
Sacramento St. Big Sky 305 0.220 0.429 254 -14
Tennessee Tech OVC 306 0.218 0.487 181 +4
Florida A&M SWAC 307 0.217 0.748 7 +31
Southeastern La. Southland 308 0.216 0.609 56 -44
UTRGV WAC 309 0.212 0.570 77 +17
Sacred Heart NEC 310 0.209 0.343 320 -45
Dartmouth Ivy 311 0.206 0.549 96 +26
Milwaukee Horizon 312 0.205 0.374 307 +28
Eastern Ill. OVC 313 0.201 0.379 302 -11
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 314 0.193 0.308 344 +25
Central Mich. MAC 315 0.193 0.536 110 0
Jacksonville A-Sun 316 0.193 0.367 311 -32
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 317 0.189 0.612 53 +12
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 318 0.188 0.281 354 +13
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 319 0.184 0.447 228 +4
North Dakota Summit 320 0.183 0.291 352 -17
Campbell CAA 321 0.182 0.390 294 +7
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 322 0.180 0.638 42 0
Eastern Mich. MAC 323 0.179 0.390 295 -11
Lindenwood OVC 324 0.179 0.499 163 -7
VMI Southern 325 0.179 0.427 256 -20
Loyola Maryland Patriot 326 0.178 0.380 300 -6
Manhattan MAAC 327 0.174 0.501 160 -18
New Mexico St. C-USA 328 0.173 0.610 55 +6
Rider MAAC 329 0.170 0.408 276 +12
Northwestern St. Southland 330 0.170 0.491 177 -3
Chicago St. Independent 331 0.164 0.344 319 -10
Southern Ind. OVC 332 0.162 0.546 102 -24
Grambling SWAC 333 0.157 0.706 14 +18
Lafayette Patriot 334 0.156 0.525 123 -10
UMBC Am. East 335 0.155 0.250 359 -17
Wagner NEC 336 0.150 0.337 326 -20
Hampton CAA 337 0.143 0.391 293 -1
Detroit Mercy Horizon 338 0.142 0.536 113 -3
South Carolina St. MEAC 339 0.141 0.407 278 -6
Central Ark. A-Sun 340 0.140 0.337 328 +9
Morgan St. MEAC 341 0.138 0.588 69 +9
N.C. A&T Big South 342 0.135 0.609 57 +3
NJIT Am. East 343 0.128 0.413 272 +12
Niagara MAAC 344 0.127 0.375 305 -12
Buffalo MAC 345 0.127 0.548 98 +7
Army West Point Patriot 346 0.126 0.299 348 +13
Houston Christian Southland 347 0.123 0.627 46 0
LIU NEC 348 0.123 0.465 210 -29
Le Moyne NEC 349 0.121 0.330 333 -19
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 350 0.121 0.454 215 -2
Alabama A&M SWAC 351 0.115 0.475 199 -8
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 352 0.112 0.509 142 +6
UMES MEAC 353 0.110 0.537 109 -7
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 354 0.106 0.341 321 -12
IUPUI Horizon 355 0.087 0.376 304 -2
Charleston So. Big South 356 0.086 0.378 303 +1
Holy Cross Patriot 357 0.081 0.315 342 -1
Stonehill NEC 358 0.080 0.447 229 -4
Pacific WCC 359 0.078 0.294 351 -15
Coppin St. MEAC 360 0.053 0.339 322 0
Siena MAAC 361 0.032 0.306 345 +1
Mississippi Val. SWAC 362 0.029 0.608 59 -1