After Tennessee briefly surpassed them last week, Houston retakes the #1 spot this week following a 13 point Tennessee loss at Florida. Otherwise, the top 7 teams remain steady, with Houston, Tennessee, UCLA, and Alabama followed by Purdue, Saint Mary’s, and UConn.

Biggest Losers

#30 Ohio State: Ohio State’s 2023 free-fall continued this week, losing by 5 at home to Wisconsin and by 8 at Michigan. They haven’t been the same team since Zed Key’s health became an issue in early January; he has since missed time for both shoulder and knee injuries, and he hasn’t been effective when he’s played.

#27 Boise State: Not only did Boise State blow a chance to take a firm grip of the Mountain West Conference on Saturday, their game at San Diego State wasn’t even competitive, as they lost by 20 and dropped 10 spots in the rankings. It’s worth noting, however, that they were playing without starting point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. When healthy, Boise State is undoubtedly still a dangerous team.

Biggest Winners

#15 West Virginia: West Virginia defeated an Oklahoma team coming off a win against Alabama in dominant fashion on Saturday, beating them by 32 points. Despite a meager 14-9 record and current status as a bubble team, my model sees West Virginia as a potential Sweet 16 team.

#37 Florida: While Florida fell just short of beating Kentucky in Lexington on Saturday, they secured an impressive 67-54 win at home against 2nd ranked Tennessee on Wednesday. The 13 point margin was the largest losing margin for Tennessee on the season. It remains to be seen whether the victory will be enough to propel Florida to the NCAA Tournament, however.

Team Conference Ranking Expected Winning Percentage vs. Average Opponent Strength of Schedule Change From Last Week
Houston AAC 1 0.949 0.620 +1
Tennessee SEC 2 0.946 0.670 -1
UCLA Pac 12 3 0.941 0.710 0
Alabama SEC 4 0.932 0.727 0
Purdue Big 10 5 0.924 0.677 0
Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC 6 0.919 0.678 0
UConn Big East 7 0.916 0.649 0
Arizona Pac 12 8 0.906 0.699 +1
Rutgers Big 10 9 0.902 0.661 +2
Kansas Big 12 10 0.896 0.773 -2
Texas Big 12 11 0.893 0.726 +1
Creighton Big East 12 0.887 0.711 -2
Baylor Big 12 13 0.886 0.737 +1
Marquette Big East 14 0.884 0.665 -1
West Virginia Big 12 15 0.880 0.731 +11
Gonzaga WCC 16 0.878 0.709 +4
Illinois Big 10 17 0.877 0.649 -2
Iowa St. Big 12 18 0.876 0.704 0
TCU Big 12 19 0.872 0.654 -3
San Diego St. MWC 20 0.870 0.719 +3
Indiana Big 10 21 0.867 0.684 +4
Arkansas SEC 22 0.866 0.679 -3
Virginia ACC 23 0.864 0.648 -1
Kansas St. Big 12 24 0.863 0.707 0
Maryland Big 10 25 0.862 0.680 +5
Auburn SEC 26 0.861 0.675 +2
Boise St. MWC 27 0.861 0.633 -10
Xavier Big East 28 0.855 0.722 -1
Oklahoma St. Big 12 29 0.854 0.731 0
Ohio St. Big 10 30 0.852 0.693 -9
Fla. Atlantic C-USA 31 0.852 0.541 0
Iowa Big 10 32 0.845 0.709 +2
Duke ACC 33 0.834 0.656 0
Kentucky SEC 34 0.831 0.657 +6
Utah St. MWC 35 0.828 0.659 +4
Providence Big East 36 0.828 0.596 +2
Florida SEC 37 0.825 0.697 +12
North Carolina ACC 38 0.821 0.690 -2
Nevada MWC 39 0.818 0.688 +12
New Mexico MWC 40 0.818 0.620 -3
Mississippi St. SEC 41 0.818 0.654 +5
Michigan St. Big 10 42 0.817 0.767 +1
Texas A&M SEC 43 0.816 0.616 +4
Utah Pac 12 44 0.814 0.599 -9
Southern California Pac 12 45 0.812 0.699 -3
Oral Roberts Summit 46 0.812 0.467 +15
Northwestern Big 10 47 0.810 0.667 -15
Oregon Pac 12 48 0.804 0.745 -3
Miami (FL) ACC 49 0.796 0.600 +8
Liberty A-Sun 50 0.796 0.469 +2
NC State ACC 51 0.796 0.572 +3
Memphis AAC 52 0.795 0.621 -2
Colorado Pac 12 53 0.795 0.658 +3
Virginia Tech ACC 54 0.790 0.639 -1
Penn St. Big 10 55 0.789 0.676 -11
Seton Hall Big East 56 0.789 0.689 +3
North Texas C-USA 57 0.784 0.553 +8
Cincinnati AAC 58 0.781 0.602 +9
Oklahoma Big 12 59 0.780 0.761 -18
Missouri SEC 60 0.777 0.644 -2
Washington St. Pac 12 61 0.775 0.738 -6
Sam Houston WAC 62 0.770 0.544 -14
Michigan Big 10 63 0.769 0.696 +11
Texas Tech Big 12 64 0.766 0.664 -4
Arizona St. Pac 12 65 0.764 0.659 -3
UAB C-USA 66 0.758 0.533 +2
UCF AAC 67 0.758 0.644 -1
Wisconsin Big 10 68 0.757 0.720 +1
Kent St. MAC 69 0.754 0.495 -6
Pittsburgh ACC 70 0.749 0.599 +2
Marshall Sunbelt 71 0.745 0.431 0
BYU WCC 72 0.741 0.622 +6
VCU A-10 73 0.738 0.526 +2
Yale Ivy 74 0.737 0.429 +12
Dayton A-10 75 0.735 0.511 -11
Wake Forest ACC 76 0.734 0.616 +1
Iona MAAC 77 0.732 0.466 +2
UNLV MWC 78 0.730 0.619 -5
Southern Miss. Sunbelt 79 0.728 0.443 +2
Clemson ACC 80 0.726 0.548 -10
Col. of Charleston CAA 81 0.722 0.416 -5
Bradley MVC 82 0.715 0.489 +8
Villanova Big East 83 0.714 0.677 -1
Utah Valley WAC 84 0.713 0.538 +5
James Madison Sunbelt 85 0.710 0.436 -2
Santa Clara WCC 86 0.703 0.664 +2
UC Irvine Big West 87 0.701 0.501 -3
Tulane AAC 88 0.698 0.530 +6
Drake MVC 89 0.683 0.461 -4
Akron MAC 90 0.679 0.470 +22
Syracuse ACC 91 0.669 0.570 +6
LMU (CA) WCC 92 0.668 0.603 -12
Vanderbilt SEC 93 0.662 0.699 -2
St. John’s (NY) Big East 94 0.662 0.617 -7
San Francisco WCC 95 0.660 0.564 +1
Stanford Pac 12 96 0.658 0.633 +2
Furman Southern 97 0.657 0.431 +10
Saint Louis A-10 98 0.655 0.576 -6
Nebraska Big 10 99 0.655 0.737 +1
Charlotte C-USA 100 0.653 0.495 -5
Washington Pac 12 101 0.653 0.714 +1
San Jose St. MWC 102 0.652 0.594 +4
Louisiana Sunbelt 103 0.651 0.462 +13
Indiana St. MVC 104 0.651 0.401 +16
UC Santa Barbara Big West 105 0.646 0.375 -12
Ole Miss SEC 106 0.642 0.693 -7
Hofstra CAA 107 0.638 0.496 -2
Southern Utah WAC 108 0.637 0.569 -7
Grand Canyon WAC 109 0.635 0.556 -6
Princeton Ivy 110 0.632 0.395 +7
Montana St. Big Sky 111 0.631 0.478 +2
Middle Tenn. C-USA 112 0.629 0.547 +10
Southern Ill. MVC 113 0.626 0.459 +5
Butler Big East 114 0.626 0.707 -4
Toledo MAC 115 0.625 0.431 -4
Wichita St. AAC 116 0.623 0.565 +3
Temple AAC 117 0.622 0.629 -9
Cornell Ivy 118 0.620 0.414 -4
Duquesne A-10 119 0.613 0.497 +7
Colorado St. MWC 120 0.607 0.654 -16
SFA WAC 121 0.602 0.517 +2
Georgia SEC 122 0.599 0.577 -13
UNC Greensboro Southern 123 0.594 0.456 +17
Youngstown St. Horizon 124 0.594 0.340 0
Hawaii Big West 125 0.593 0.441 -4
Seattle U WAC 126 0.581 0.510 -11
LSU SEC 127 0.579 0.678 0
Louisiana Tech C-USA 128 0.576 0.528 +4
Eastern Wash. Big Sky 129 0.571 0.451 +21
Colgate Patriot 130 0.565 0.347 +1
Belmont MVC 131 0.565 0.465 +3
Troy Sunbelt 132 0.562 0.485 -3
Quinnipiac MAAC 133 0.560 0.376 -8
Samford Southern 134 0.558 0.396 +8
South Fla. AAC 135 0.558 0.535 -5
Davidson A-10 136 0.557 0.542 +9
Kennesaw St. A-Sun 137 0.556 0.458 +4
Long Beach St. Big West 138 0.554 0.527 +9
George Mason A-10 139 0.551 0.504 -6
Richmond A-10 140 0.547 0.503 -5
Missouri St. MVC 141 0.547 0.520 -13
UC Davis Big West 142 0.545 0.450 +11
Cal St. Fullerton Big West 143 0.545 0.515 -4
Vermont Am. East 144 0.538 0.467 +15
Portland WCC 145 0.537 0.600 +12
DePaul Big East 146 0.537 0.681 -3
Air Force MWC 147 0.534 0.525 -10
Towson CAA 148 0.532 0.365 +7
UNCW CAA 149 0.532 0.395 +11
Fordham A-10 150 0.529 0.404 -1
South Alabama Sunbelt 151 0.528 0.504 +14
UMass Lowell Am. East 152 0.527 0.271 +23
Radford Big South 153 0.525 0.393 -5
Ohio MAC 154 0.522 0.459 -16
Rice C-USA 155 0.519 0.530 -11
Ball St. MAC 156 0.519 0.420 -4
Longwood Big South 157 0.517 0.339 +11
California Baptist WAC 158 0.517 0.456 -22
UC Riverside Big West 159 0.510 0.490 -8
St. Bonaventure A-10 160 0.508 0.495 +16
Pepperdine WCC 161 0.504 0.623 -5
Western Ky. C-USA 162 0.504 0.504 +8
Wyoming MWC 163 0.500 0.633 0
Stetson A-Sun 164 0.499 0.468 +28
New Mexico St. WAC 165 0.498 0.604 +16
Utah Tech WAC 166 0.497 0.554 +20
UTEP C-USA 167 0.495 0.560 -3
Siena MAAC 168 0.494 0.379 -14
Fresno St. MWC 169 0.493 0.633 -8
Penn Ivy 170 0.493 0.449 +1
Old Dominion Sunbelt 171 0.491 0.486 -4
Gardner-Webb Big South 172 0.488 0.392 +7
Buffalo MAC 173 0.485 0.560 -7
Massachusetts A-10 174 0.485 0.509 -28
South Dakota St. Summit 175 0.485 0.509 +14
Lipscomb A-Sun 176 0.481 0.410 +25
Harvard Ivy 177 0.478 0.470 -5
Rider MAAC 178 0.478 0.381 +27
Montana Big Sky 179 0.478 0.478 +1
UNC Asheville Big South 180 0.478 0.388 +8
App State Sunbelt 181 0.476 0.505 -7
UNI MVC 182 0.476 0.480 +1
FGCU A-Sun 183 0.474 0.454 -25
Pacific WCC 184 0.469 0.520 +7
Northwestern St. Southland 185 0.465 0.374 +13
Cleveland St. Horizon 186 0.465 0.372 -24
Norfolk St. MEAC 187 0.465 0.396 +13
Bryant Am. East 188 0.463 0.406 +31
Eastern Ky. A-Sun 189 0.461 0.496 +4
Notre Dame ACC 190 0.461 0.564 -21
A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 191 0.459 0.342 +23
Florida St. ACC 192 0.458 0.642 -19
Detroit Mercy Horizon 193 0.458 0.447 +33
Tarleton St. WAC 194 0.457 0.569 -7
Abilene Christian WAC 195 0.454 0.497 +37
Wright St. Horizon 196 0.449 0.360 +16
Chattanooga Southern 197 0.449 0.460 -20
Boston College ACC 198 0.447 0.597 +6
Brown Ivy 199 0.446 0.404 +16
SMU AAC 200 0.445 0.619 -16
N.C. Central MEAC 201 0.444 0.451 +2
Georgia Tech ACC 202 0.442 0.630 -17
Navy Patriot 203 0.440 0.356 +26
Murray St. MVC 204 0.438 0.489 -22
Georgetown Big East 205 0.436 0.648 +1
Saint Joseph’s A-10 206 0.435 0.461 -12
San Diego WCC 207 0.434 0.562 -12
Milwaukee Horizon 208 0.434 0.404 -9
Queens (NC) A-Sun 209 0.430 0.358 -1
Weber St. Big Sky 210 0.430 0.484 +6
Drexel CAA 211 0.429 0.352 -4
FIU C-USA 212 0.426 0.544 +19
St. Thomas (MN) Summit 213 0.426 0.375 +8
Oregon St. Pac 12 214 0.425 0.642 -17
SIUE OVC 215 0.424 0.343 +2
Grambling SWAC 216 0.420 0.351 -3
Sacramento St. Big Sky 217 0.419 0.489 -27
Texas St. Sunbelt 218 0.416 0.495 -8
George Washington A-10 219 0.414 0.471 -41
Northern Ky. Horizon 220 0.414 0.425 -9
Purdue Fort Wayne Horizon 221 0.412 0.386 -19
East Carolina AAC 222 0.411 0.460 -4
Minnesota Big 10 223 0.396 0.692 -27
Ga. Southern Sunbelt 224 0.389 0.450 +3
Wofford Southern 225 0.386 0.440 -16
Southern U. SWAC 226 0.383 0.407 -6
American Patriot 227 0.381 0.304 -3
Portland St. Big Sky 228 0.378 0.515 +2
Rhode Island A-10 229 0.376 0.508 -4
UMBC Am. East 230 0.374 0.334 -7
Jacksonville A-Sun 231 0.369 0.461 -9
ETSU Southern 232 0.367 0.395 +13
Delaware CAA 233 0.361 0.426 -5
Howard MEAC 234 0.360 0.410 +14
Mercer Southern 235 0.359 0.400 +4
North Dakota St. Summit 236 0.357 0.475 -1
La Salle A-10 237 0.347 0.477 +22
Army West Point Patriot 238 0.346 0.301 +2
Southeast Mo. St. OVC 239 0.345 0.364 -2
Northern Colo. Big Sky 240 0.345 0.535 +7
Northern Ariz. Big Sky 241 0.345 0.554 +24
Winthrop Big South 242 0.341 0.448 +16
Idaho St. Big Sky 243 0.341 0.440 +9
UMES MEAC 244 0.341 0.430 +23
Niagara MAAC 245 0.340 0.376 +18
Western Caro. Southern 246 0.340 0.393 +15
South Carolina SEC 247 0.340 0.622 +2
NIU MAC 248 0.340 0.454 +25
UTRGV WAC 249 0.338 0.508 +17
Kansas City Summit 250 0.337 0.457 -14
Southern Ind. OVC 251 0.336 0.336 -17
California Pac 12 252 0.335 0.682 -11
Alcorn SWAC 253 0.333 0.434 +3
Bowling Green MAC 254 0.332 0.390 -16
Illinois St. MVC 255 0.332 0.430 -11
Nicholls Southland 256 0.330 0.475 +4
Fairfield MAAC 257 0.330 0.415 -11
Georgia St. Sunbelt 258 0.329 0.493 -4
Western Ill. Summit 259 0.325 0.377 -26
Loyola Chicago A-10 260 0.324 0.494 +11
Campbell Big South 261 0.322 0.407 -8
Maine Am. East 262 0.320 0.387 +22
Tulsa AAC 263 0.319 0.573 -21
UT Arlington WAC 264 0.316 0.574 +22
Bellarmine A-Sun 265 0.316 0.493 +3
Southeastern La. Southland 266 0.316 0.387 -15
Charleston So. Big South 267 0.315 0.423 -17
Idaho Big Sky 268 0.315 0.395 +12
North Florida A-Sun 269 0.313 0.482 +21
Oakland Horizon 270 0.309 0.476 -6
Lehigh Patriot 271 0.307 0.355 -1
Lafayette Patriot 272 0.302 0.409 -17
Robert Morris Horizon 273 0.299 0.387 -30
UT Martin OVC 274 0.298 0.322 -12
Jacksonville St. A-Sun 275 0.293 0.452 +3
North Ala. A-Sun 276 0.292 0.399 +7
Chicago St. Independent 277 0.291 0.421 0
ULM Sunbelt 278 0.288 0.501 +10
Prairie View SWAC 279 0.288 0.394 -10
Morehead St. OVC 280 0.287 0.393 +18
Denver Summit 281 0.286 0.374 +12
New Hampshire Am. East 282 0.282 0.334 -8
USC Upstate Big South 283 0.282 0.420 +2
Coastal Carolina Sunbelt 284 0.280 0.454 -27
Valparaiso MVC 285 0.280 0.438 +7
Morgan St. MEAC 286 0.278 0.388 -11
N.C. A&T Big South 287 0.272 0.474 -5
UIC MVC 288 0.271 0.413 -1
UC San Diego Big West 289 0.269 0.488 -13
Western Mich. MAC 290 0.268 0.478 -18
Mount St. Mary’s MAAC 291 0.267 0.389 +5
Dartmouth Ivy 292 0.266 0.437 -13
Boston U. Patriot 293 0.263 0.338 -12
Northeastern CAA 294 0.262 0.371 -5
Canisius MAAC 295 0.262 0.439 -4
Tennessee Tech OVC 296 0.251 0.385 -1
Bucknell Patriot 297 0.250 0.309 +17
North Dakota Summit 298 0.250 0.450 +5
Miami (OH) MAC 299 0.250 0.483 +8
Cal Poly Big West 300 0.249 0.492 -1
Tex. A&M-Commerce Southland 301 0.249 0.313 0
Omaha Summit 302 0.248 0.522 -5
Eastern Mich. MAC 303 0.246 0.459 +20
Tennessee St. OVC 304 0.243 0.275 +11
CSU Bakersfield Big West 305 0.242 0.490 +16
Wagner NEC 306 0.239 0.238 0
UTSA C-USA 307 0.239 0.549 -7
Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 308 0.237 0.438 +1
High Point Big South 309 0.236 0.394 -5
Louisville ACC 310 0.236 0.623 +6
Austin Peay A-Sun 311 0.235 0.489 +2
South Dakota Summit 312 0.232 0.438 -18
Jackson St. SWAC 313 0.225 0.446 -1
Central Mich. MAC 314 0.223 0.446 -3
William & Mary CAA 315 0.222 0.457 -7
Manhattan MAAC 316 0.222 0.377 +4
Arkansas St. Sunbelt 317 0.221 0.426 0
Texas Southern SWAC 318 0.220 0.466 -16
Saint Peter’s MAAC 319 0.220 0.358 -9
Marist MAAC 320 0.219 0.343 +6
CSUN Big West 321 0.214 0.497 +3
The Citadel Southern 322 0.214 0.405 -17
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 323 0.212 0.232 -4
Little Rock OVC 324 0.208 0.341 +5
Central Ark. A-Sun 325 0.207 0.454 +5
Alabama A&M SWAC 326 0.201 0.369 +7
McNeese Southland 327 0.199 0.451 -5
Binghamton Am. East 328 0.199 0.361 -1
Sacred Heart NEC 329 0.198 0.223 +5
NJIT Am. East 330 0.196 0.364 -12
Elon CAA 331 0.196 0.439 +8
Stonehill NEC 332 0.193 0.298 +3
Coppin St. MEAC 333 0.190 0.466 -8
UIW Southland 334 0.183 0.312 +3
Holy Cross Patriot 335 0.177 0.355 +3
Presbyterian Big South 336 0.176 0.385 0
Stony Brook CAA 337 0.174 0.407 -5
Central Conn. St. NEC 338 0.174 0.277 -10
Saint Francis (PA) NEC 339 0.174 0.295 -8
UAlbany Am. East 340 0.160 0.411 0
Lindenwood OVC 341 0.160 0.361 +10
VMI Southern 342 0.156 0.419 0
Eastern Ill. OVC 343 0.153 0.353 -2
South Carolina St. MEAC 344 0.152 0.439 +1
Loyola Maryland Patriot 345 0.152 0.357 +2
Bethune-Cookman SWAC 346 0.152 0.345 +7
Columbia Ivy 347 0.151 0.433 +3
Merrimack NEC 348 0.151 0.324 +4
Hampton CAA 349 0.151 0.392 -3
Houston Christian Southland 350 0.149 0.382 -6
Evansville MVC 351 0.142 0.474 -3
New Orleans Southland 352 0.138 0.375 -9
Alabama St. SWAC 353 0.134 0.380 -4
Monmouth CAA 354 0.128 0.531 +1
Delaware St. MEAC 355 0.123 0.433 -1
Lamar University Southland 356 0.113 0.365 +2
Mississippi Val. SWAC 357 0.111 0.447 0
St. Francis Brooklyn NEC 358 0.107 0.201 -2
Florida A&M SWAC 359 0.105 0.438 +1
IUPUI Horizon 360 0.095 0.347 -1
Green Bay Horizon 361 0.064 0.417 0
LIU NEC 362 0.050 0.349 0
Hartford Independent 363 0.048 0.279 0